For global assets, especially in the blockchain industry, it won't have an extreme impact, regardless of who becomes the president of the United States.
Written by: Huang Shiliang
The next president of the United States is about to be announced, and recently the reactions in major global capital markets have been very intense, including the U.S. stock market and cryptocurrency markets, especially the reactions in the crypto space.
From the sentiment expressed online, it seems that the funds in the crypto space are particularly afraid of Trump's defeat. I feel this is completely unnecessary.
The biggest feature of the U.S. system is the separation of powers. A president can do many things, but it is difficult to create earth-shattering changes.
Trump has been bullish on crypto in recent months, making various exaggerated statements, claiming he wants to turn the U.S. into a paradise for cryptocurrencies. But can we take these seriously? It’s more rational to be skeptical.
For example, Trump said he wants to treat BTC as a strategic reserve of the U.S. This... The U.S. doesn’t even decide its gold reserves just by what the president says. If you still believe that the U.S. is a market economy, then the gold reserves must be considered based on economic and financial stability; how could the president decide that?
If the president could decide to include Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, what do we need the Treasury and the Federal Reserve for? What do we need Congress's legislation for?
If Trump is really that powerful, why not just appoint himself as president? Why hold an election?
That is to say, Trump is pulling Bitcoin. If he were to talk about a certain stock, the SEC would probably sue him for market manipulation.
Just look at the issue of TikTok's ban in the U.S. During Trump's previous term, he wanted to kill TikTok. The Biden administration also has this intention, but there has not been a clear result to date. This is merely handling a single company; it’s not something a president can decide alone. Counting the games involved, presidential executive orders, national security reviews, congressional discussions, and multiple court interventions, the final decision-making power is dispersed among various departments. The president's decision-making power is indeed limited.
This must be said to be an advantage of the American system; national policies and livelihood issues do not drastically change due to the change of the presidential position.
Looking at Chinese history, one of the biggest problems with over 2000 years of imperial power is the issue of succession. The U.S. succession system is very worth learning.
Are the cryptocurrency enthusiasts watching too many palace dramas, thinking that changing a president can have a transformative impact on the crypto space?
Ah, if I keep talking, it will turn into a pro-American speech.
Additionally, I think Trump’s approach in the crypto space is quite unappealing.
On OpenSea, a total of four NFT projects directly related to Trump can be found, all of which are legitimate and directly related to him. Buying NFTs can provide special benefits, such as a piece of Trump's debate suit, participation in golf club dinners, etc. [1]. All of these NFTs are undoubtedly garbage.
And just last month, the Trump family launched another DeFi project, WLF, hoping it won't end up as a failure.
If anyone else were to issue these projects, they would probably be scolded in the crypto space, but as the president, if he gains some benefits in the crypto space, it's just considered the industry paying him advertising fees. However, I think this advertising fee is very worthwhile. Trump is undoubtedly the top figure in the world today, gaining a few tens of millions from the crypto space in exchange for a few words praising the crypto space is too cost-effective for the crypto industry.
Just based on his efforts to advertise for the crypto space, if he were president, it should be beneficial for the crypto space.
Including Musk, many people claim that if Harris is elected, there will be a stock market crash, economic disaster, and World War 3; conversely, if Trump is in office, everyone will achieve wealth within three days.
Oh dear, men shouldn't swear like this on Valentine's Day; they'll be struck by lightning.
From the perspective of actual economic effects, Biden is quite friendly towards cryptocurrencies. He is not just boasting; although he has some signs of dementia, during his term, the ETFs for BTC and ETH were indeed launched, and BTC reached a new high.
The U.S. stock market has performed very well during Biden's term.
Harris, as Biden's vice president, is more likely to continue Biden's policies.
Why do netizens think that if Harris comes to power, the cryptocurrency prices will plummet? I really don't believe that.
My point is not that who is elected has no impact on the crypto space at all; I just think it cannot produce extreme effects, and a slight increase in normal market fluctuations is to be expected.
Compared to the short-term impact of the president's inauguration, the more important influencing factor is whether the overall economy of the United States and the global economy can continue to improve.
Regardless of who is elected, the real factors affecting the trends of the cryptocurrency market and other capital markets are the economic fundamentals of the United States, including inflation levels, employment data, interest rate policies, and international economic conditions. These economic factors determine market liquidity and investors' risk appetite, rather than a single political leader. Therefore, focusing on macroeconomic trends is key to judging long-term market trends, rather than being obsessed with the short-term fluctuations brought by leadership changes.
Finally, let's have some fun and guess the election results.
I guess Trump will win.
My reason is: Musk is too strategic.
Two years ago, when Musk bought Twitter, he said he would buy it in April 2022, and the deal was finalized in October. At that time, I felt Musk had changed; he was no longer great. Didn't he used to do things that no one else would do? He should be boasting about going to Mars; why is he now spending almost all his assets to buy Twitter, a social product that has long been a battleground for entrepreneurs? This is just so mediocre.
At that time, I felt he was buying Twitter for greater influence.
But this year’s U.S. presidential election year, X.com has become the center of campaign games, becoming Musk's biggest political capital (and probably one of Trump's biggest political capitals).
Planning this for two years and spending almost all his assets on such a layout can be considered a (half) do-or-die situation.
Just thinking about it feels impressive.
Looking at it now, spending 40 billion to buy X, which has now become the biggest political topic stage globally, Musk has won big; this business is much more successful than boasting about going to Mars.
In contrast to Musk's actions, I believe the current president Biden and his current presidential candidate Harris cannot have a similar long-term layout due to the previous job swap incident.
So, I think Trump will win.
[1]Ozone Networks, Inc. “Trump Digital Trading Card #1518.” OpenSea. Accessed November 4, 2024. https://opensea.io/assets/matic/0x24a11e702cd90f034ea44faf1e180c0c654ac5d9/1518.
