#美国大选后涨或跌？
The countdown to the US election has begun.
According to a poll jointly conducted by the New York Times and Siena College on November 3 local time, in the seven key "swing states" in the 2024 US election, US Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Harris leads former US President and Republican presidential candidate Trump by a slight advantage of 48% to 47%.
The United States (Forbes) also released a new poll result, Harris currently leads Trump with 49% to 48% support.
In polls conducted by various institutions, Harris is far ahead: the BBC result is Harris 62% and Trump 33%; the CNN result is Harris 61% and Trump 36%; the New York Times result is Harris 58% and Trump 40%; the Harvard University result is Harris 61% and Trump 32%; the USA Today result is Harris 63% and Trump 34%.
Three factors have recently adversely affected Trump's election. First, Trump's supporters called Puerto Ricans "trash", which aroused the anger of Puerto Ricans. There are about 500,000 Puerto Rican voters in Pennsylvania. It is expected to add about 30,000 votes to Harris. Second, this time Harris mobilized female voters through the theme of abortion and achieved remarkable results, causing a significant increase in the proportion of female voters voting. Third, voters over 65 years old supported Trump more in the past, but this time some people turned to Harris because they were worried that Trump would harm their own interests by repealing Obamacare.
Another fundamental change that is unfavorable to Trump is that independent voters have now clearly turned to Harris. According to a Marist College poll, Harris's support among independent voters (those who do not belong to any party) has changed dramatically from 45% (Harris): 49% (Trump) in September to 55%: 40% now, a change of 10%. In a close election, independent voters will determine the final result.
According to statistics, in this year's US election, 83 billionaires support Harris and 52 support Trump.
In addition to Bill Gates, other well-known wealthy people who support Harris include Facebook co-founder Dustin Moskovitz, LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman and Bloomberg founder Michael Bloomberg.
Well-known wealthy people who support Trump include banking tycoon Tim Mellon, entrepreneur Elon Musk, and gambling tycoon widow Miriam Adelson.
Among them, Musk, who was exposed to have donated at least $110 million to Trump, even proposed a "money for support" plan a few days ago to support Trump, and held an online lottery for voters in seven "swing states", where one person was drawn from all registered voters who signed the petition in the seven states every day and given a $1 million prize. It is worth noting that the lottery in the first three days was limited to voters in Pennsylvania, which is also a heavily-weighted "swing state" with 19 electoral votes.
There is no doubt that the mainstream elites in all walks of life in American society support Harris.
Some Nobel laureates, economists, scientists, and writers have come out to publish open letters in support of Harris. This situation was rare in the past, mainly because they all felt that Trump was too unreliable and too dangerous.
Perhaps the most fatal blow to Trump comes from his Republican colleagues.
Trump alone controls the Republican Party, and all the traditional establishment politicians in the Republican Party have stepped aside. For the establishment and other factions within the Republican Party, only if Trump loses the election and reduces his influence can they regain their voice and influence, and the Republican Party can return to the normal development track of collective democratic consultation and co-governance among different factions.
Therefore, famous politicians from the Republican establishment openly opposed Trump and voted for Harris. These people include former President George W. Bush and his daughter Barbara, Vice President Cheney's daughter, former Republican New York Governor Bloomberg's boss Bloomberg, former Republican California Governor and famous actor Schwarzenegger, etc.
According to statistics, 111 influential former Republican officials have recently publicly announced their support for Democratic candidate Harris, which is unprecedented in history.
The Democratic Party is different. It is fighting as a united collective. The entire party is mobilized. Former President Clinton, Obama, Biden and other leaders of different factions are actively campaigning for Harris.
I think as long as there are no particularly unexpected events in the last two days, Harris' victory will be expected.
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