Today is the U.S. election day, and I summarized some important information last night. Due to the retreat of the 'Trump trade,' Bitcoin overnight briefly retraced to around the 30-day moving average of 66.9k. Meanwhile, Mentougou once again 'caused trouble' by selling 2,000 Bitcoins, with ETF outflow reaching 410 million. Every time there is movement, there is a drop.
The critical moment has arrived; something big is coming!
The interest rate cut meeting on the 8th combined with Powell's speech will lead to more pinning trades. The market makers will continue to push down at support levels, forcing technical traders to stop their losses. Furthermore, this week's election is all about policy factors, and funds are in wait-and-see mode. In the last two elections, on November 8, 2016, Bitcoin corrected by 10%, but two months after the election, it rose by 60%! After the election on November 3, 2020, Bitcoin went up by 200% two months later. If we follow the normal script, if Trump is elected smoothly, then the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and expand its balance sheet, and a vigorous market will begin.
From the K-line perspective, Bitcoin is in a downtrend on the 1-hour level (the MACD is about to golden cross, suggesting it won’t drop much further), in a downtrend on the 4-hour level (with a lower shadow line, as long as it doesn’t break the lowest point, it will rebound), and in a downtrend on the 12-hour and daily levels. However, with yesterday's weekly candle closing as a small bullish candle, the weekly will be a decisive battle; whether it breaks through will be a definitive matter. This week, we need to observe if it can close around 72,000. As long as it does, the bull market will arrive. Only consecutive bullish candles can stabilize the breakout pattern; the rest will be left to the market makers. Many people cannot understand why the ability of ETH to stand above 2820 is considered the dividing line between bullish and bearish, and even question what the bull market has to do with ETH.
Rising is tough, but falling is smooth! ETH's trend represents the vast majority of altcoins; for a comprehensive bull market, ETH must follow through with a breakthrough.
Altcoins essentially still lack liquidity; funds have gone into ETFs and have not spilled over into altcoins. However, there are more and more altcoins that are continuously draining funds. After going public, they are constantly unlocking and dumping, which is why this round of altcoin season has mostly turned to the MEME track. However, it is just a passing wind; the best strategy is to take profits and run, without getting too caught up in it. Buy small amounts during downturns, and for mainstream coins, add positions every time they drop 3%, and for altcoins, every 6%. Currently, funds are divided into five parts, each part is equal, and only strong coins with high trading volumes are bought.
No matter who is elected, whether it’s bearish or bullish, it will only temporarily affect the market's fluctuations, but it will definitely not stop or change the upcoming bull market.
So, you must stay firm in your beliefs and not get left behind. Missing out is not scary; the scariest thing is the anxiety after missing out. Anxiety can lead to all sorts of erratic actions. Don't be afraid if you can't keep up with the trends because trends come quickly and go just as fast. Most people will get melted in the trends. Trends need to be understood to see if they can become long-term projects. If they can, buy them when they are ignored; it may be slow, but it will definitely last longer!
A bull market will definitely come; it's just that the situation is more complex. The market cannot deceive; all of it is built with real money. We must look beyond these appearances to see the essence of things, so we can naturally remain calm and collected.
Lastly, don't tie yourself to the election chariot. The market's bullish and bearish factors are hard to predict; otherwise, we wouldn't see big rises after bad news and drops after good news. Everything is just a fabricated lie, and only by seeing the true nature of things can we understand it!
It all depends on whether you have Bitcoin in your hands and whether your Bitcoin has increased or decreased!
