As the U.S. election day approaches, the propaganda struggle between both sides has almost reached its peak, with all hot topics being forced to yield, and attention resources being almost completely concentrated. Consequently, the rise in BTC is also fluctuating with Trump's winning probability.
Many even jokingly say they never thought they would care so much about the employment issues of an 80-year-old man across the ocean. It really is the case that our sense of involvement and participation in the U.S. election is absurdly strong, despite not having a vote.
What’s more frightening is that we even think this level of attention is very necessary, because everyone seems to have established a strange logic: if Trump wins, Bitcoin will surge; if Harris wins, the crypto market will face problems.
What's the reason? The reason is that while Trump's approval rating fluctuates, the price of Bitcoin shows a positive correlation. But the problem is that this correlation has significant issues; the price changes linked to news only amount to around 3% to 4%.
When everyone sees Bitcoin's market capitalization at $1.37 trillion, they think that affecting Bitcoin's price isn't an easy task. However, the actual daily trading volume of Bitcoin is over $30 billion. In the past, to achieve a drop of 10,000 points on the minute chart, approximately 10,000 Bitcoins were needed. Now, a fluctuation of 3% to 4% would require a volume of a few thousand Bitcoins (hundreds of millions of dollars).
The continuous repetition of public opinion guidance, coupled with the actual 'correlation,' has led retail investors to unknowingly develop a false illusion and mistakenly believe they have uncovered the 'truth,' becoming increasingly focused on such insignificant events.
I've said it before, actually it doesn't matter who comes to power, it's just about the fluctuations during that period and the upper limit issue.
However, history shows that Bitcoin is expected to see a wave of increases after elections. Interestingly, Bitcoin's price has never fallen below the election day price and has exhibited parabolic increases after each U.S. election.
According to the Bitcoin price chart below, on the last three election dates, Bitcoin prices have all served as price bottoms, followed by parabolic increases.
After the election, Bitcoin experienced a surge in the following months, eventually breaking through the $69,000 high in 2021. Notably, the price point of $13,569 during the 2020 election even served as a support level during the bear market in 2022, further highlighting the significance of Bitcoin's price on election day.
During the election
November 6 (Wednesday)
· 08:30-10:00 Seven swing states will complete vote counting during this period, which is at the early stage of the Asian trading session. It is expected that market trends will experience a wave of peaks.
· 09:00 Pennsylvania completes vote counting, on the last day before voting, both Trump and Harris choose to campaign in the state.
· 10:00 Iowa completes vote counting (with 6 electoral votes), Trump has won in this state in the last two elections.
· 13:00 will be a critical moment to witness market fluctuations, as the voting situation will be largely determined by then. However, if the election is tight, we may have to wait longer, which will be another highly watched moment. The vast majority of fluctuations in global markets occur in the first few hours after the results are announced.
Watch more and act less, waiting for the shoe to drop.
Dates worth noting after election day:
November 6 to December 11: States certify election results.
December 17: The Electoral College meets to cast official ballots.
January 6, 2025: The U.S. Congress meets to count and certify the electoral votes.
January 20, 2025: The elected President of the United States officially takes the oath of office.
Finally.
Manage your position according to your risk appetite. Large positions should still be allocated in batches to Bitcoin. The crypto market has never lacked hot news or events, just like now when no one seems to care about Bitcoin's halving event, no one cares about various governments selling Bitcoin, and no one cares whether the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates... Maybe in a few months, who the President of the United States is won’t matter to anyone either.
Hot news or events in the market always appear at the right moment in front of retail investors. We shouldn't let various news disturb our plans and strategies. The only thing we should care about is: do you have Bitcoin in hand now, and has your Bitcoin increased or decreased?
