The U.S. presidential election, which is attracting global attention, is coming soon. How the cryptocurrency market and the overall financial market will change has become the most concerning issue for global investors. In a recent interview, BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes said that no matter who wins this time, the market may experience violent fluctuations in the short term, but in the medium and long term, the U.S. government will continue to print money in order to stabilize the economy, which is bad for the crypto market. A big plus.
In response to the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) and China's gradually loosening monetary policy, Hayes believes that these represent global economic liquidity will drive the growth of risky assets, and once again emphasizes that everyone must remain patient and flexibly adjust investment portfolios. .
It doesn’t matter who wins the election, the US government will still print money
Regarding the U.S. presidential election, Hayes said that the market should favor Trump in the short term because the policies he advocates are in line with the conventions of American politics in the past decades, such as tax cuts and corporate relaxation since the Ronald Reagan era in the 1980s. regulation and increased spending.
Hayes further said that in this way, the rich can enjoy tax breaks, further allow the stock market to rise, while ensuring the basic welfare of others, and there will be no reduction even in defense spending. Trump's policies may be favored by the market. Regarding Jinli He, Hayes said that Jinli He basically said the same thing, but the way of expression was more complicated and it would be boring to listen to it. But he also said, “It doesn’t matter who wins the election, the U.S. government will still print more money, so cryptocurrencies will still perform well, otherwise they will go higher.”
Assuming Trump wins the election, it will be difficult to implement policies if there is no unity within the party
As for the perception that Trump would be friendlier on cryptocurrency regulation, Hayes takes the opposite view. Hayes said: "Trump has not made any substantial contributions to cryptocurrency during his four years in office." He added that assuming that Trump is elected but the Republican Party cannot control both the House and the Senate, his ability to govern will be limited, and the majority will Republicans are also not friendly to Trump and may not support his policies.
Election disputes become the biggest risk, affecting the market
But Hayes went on to say that the real risk is that the losing side comes out and says "this election was unfair," which could trigger a series of social and political unrest that could last for weeks or even exceed the events of January 5, 2015. On Inauguration Day, these uncertainties will greatly affect market performance, and capital withdrawals may occur in the short term. In response to the fact that the post-election results have not been released immediately, Hayes feels that the current election situation is close to five or five waves, but the market is currently obviously optimistic that Trump will win.
Instead of aggressive trading on election night, I’d rather do yoga and play tennis
As for the trading strategy on election night, Hayes admitted that he would not conduct too aggressive trading on election night, but would maintain the current position. He even said that when the election results are announced, he will do yoga or play tennis. .
Hayes also added not to take too much risk, even if the market is volatile in the short term. But in the long run, he still believes, "Whether Trump or Harris is elected, the U.S. government will continue to print money. This is already an established policy direction. The real choice for voters is actually to decide whether the printed money will be used to help Rather than choosing whether to save or stop printing money, the outcome is the same no matter who is elected."
Bitcoin still drives the crypto market, choose mainstream currencies to control risks
Regarding the trend prediction of the cryptocurrency market, Hayes said that the encryption market is still dominated by Bitcoin, which will also affect other currencies. He pointed out: “If Bitcoin goes higher, other altcoins and meme coins may rise beyond Bitcoin. This is because investors often believe that low-priced coins have more potential, but this idea is sometimes wrong. "
Hayes emphasized that in such market rotation, it is necessary to first choose mainstream currencies with high liquidity, such as Bitcoin, Ethereum and SOL, which are better choices because they have high liquidity. Once there are severe fluctuations in the market, , even if the loss is only a small drop, you can keep the funds and wait for the next move. However, if you hold small coins or altcoins with poor liquidity, you are more likely to make misjudgments, and it may be difficult to sell them, resulting in a huge loss.
Hayes is optimistic about Solana, saying it can be used as a Bitcoin alternative
Hayes described SOL as a high-volatility (high-beta) Bitcoin alternative that is "very" suitable for short-term trading. If Bitcoin rises, SOL may see larger gains because of its relatively high market volatility. high. Hayes also said that when FTX crashed, SOL fell to about $7, while Ethereum was around $1,200. And now Solana is up to about $180, while Ethereum is around $2,600. Ethereum doubled, but Solana exploded by 20 to 30 times, which is quite impressive.
Ethereum is slow, old and boring, says Vitalik will only attract attention as an internet celebrity
Hayes also said that the price of Ethereum changes too slowly, and said that Ethereum: “It’s slow, old, and boring. Even Vitalik is trying to become an internet celebrity on social media to attract everyone’s attention to Ethereum, because everyone thinks Ethereum is "It's too boring." In contrast, Hayes feels that SOL's market volatility, high liquidity, active community, and good trading performance have attracted many investors and become the focus of recent market attention. Therefore, he believes that Solana is currently more attractive than Ethereum when pursuing high returns in the short term.
Hayes added: "As soon as Bitcoin breaks through, I will not buy Bitcoin, but buy Solana. This does not mean that I will sell Ethereum that I have held for a long time, but now SOL is better as a trading tool."
Instead of focusing on the U.S. election, it’s better to focus on China’s economic strategy
Regarding the current economic situation in China, Hayes said that China's current situation is very similar to that of the United States, Japan, and the European Union, and they are all facing the problem of a real estate market collapse. When these countries have encountered this situation in the past, they have usually lowered interest rates to near zero, then engaged in quantitative easing, and let banks lend heavily to government-supported industries. Hayes predicts China will use a similar approach to address its current economic woes, as choosing to let companies that have borrowed too much go bankrupt could result in a loss of government support and serious social unrest.
Hayes believes that although the market now feels that China's response measures are not enough, in the long run, China should continue to print money and stimulate the economy. This is a good thing for assets with limited supply like Bitcoin and gold, because in the global currency They are better able to hold their value as supply increases. In short, Hayes said that instead of caring about the U.S. presidential election, we should be more concerned about the impact of China's monetary policy changes on global markets.
Focus on Fed's stance on QT and QE, brace yourself for a bull run
Regarding the policy and market future of the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED), Hayes believes that the FED will eventually stop quantitative tightening (QT) and restart quantitative easing (QE) because the reserves of the banking system are decreasing and financial stress is beginning to appear. He pointed out that while everyone is focused on interest rates, the real focus is the Fed's stance on QT and QE, which is the main impact on risk assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Finally, Hayes emphasized that no matter what the election results are, the fiscal problems in the United States will still exist, and the FED will return to the path of printing money sooner or later. This is good news for those who hold limited-risk assets like Bitcoin and gold for the long term. He also reminded investors not to pay too much attention to short-term market fluctuations, but to be prepared for the future bull market.
(Arthur Hayes: China’s QE takes time, come on, Bitcoin!)
This article Arthur Hayes: Optimistic about Bitcoin and Solana, it is better to pay attention to the Chinese economy than to pay attention to the US presidential election. First appeared on Chain News ABMedia.
