Seeing a lot of this sentiment; as always, I'm going to recommend against leverage and reckless gambling
As traders, our job is to think probabilistically, and find the biggest discrepancies between expectations and accurate pricing
In 2021, I had conviction in two predictions
(1) DeSantis, as the front runner was a paper tiger, and Trump had 95+% odds of being the actual Republican nominee
(2) Prediction markets would have a right wing skew (as I observed in 2020 Trump odds); therefor, the expected pricing on the eventual Republican nominee [regardless of who secured the nomination] would drift to 65 (see my pinned tweet about 0.65c being programmed from 2021);
Therefor, it was max value to bid infinite Trump at below 10% implied odds, knowing it would move to 65+% if my bearish thesis on DeSantis was correct (as well as buying other proxy bets associated with Trump's odds being underpriced)
Once both of these predictions came to fruition (Trump winning the R-NOM, his price hitting 65c), I felt satisfied I had captured the meat of the move, and took profit on my positions and proxy bets, as most of the delta between expectations and reality had eroded;
Now we wait to see if if there will be a fair election
#USElections2024Countdown #TetherAEDLaunch #BTCMiningRevenue #NovCryptoOutlook