A version of this story appeared in our The Guidance newsletter on November 4. Sign up here.
Polymarket’s infamous French whale stands to make $47 million on just one bet.
But if Trump loses the US election on Tuesday, he’ll be out $26 million.
And that’s just one of his political wagers.
Outside of gambling $500 on whether Bitcoin hits an all-time high this year, he has $42 million in outstanding election bets across their four different accounts.
All of which is riding on the Republicans winning and the Democrats losing. Théo, the trader’s name, told the Wall Street Journal that he has “absolutely no political agenda” despite gambling millions on Trump.
He’s bet another $758,000 on Trump winning Pennsylvania, another $1.7 million on Trump winning the popular vote, and $500,000 on Vice President Kamala Harris losing Michigan. They have several other six-figure bids on Harris losing various aspects of the race.
Polymarket bettor concentration
As for the Democrats, instead of a large whale pinning up Harris’ odds, it’s a ton of minnows.
While the French Trump whale holds more than 20% of all the “Yes” shares expecting Trump to win the election, the largest “Yes” shareholder holds 7% of the Harris shares, according to Polymarket Analytics.
What’s more, there are nearly twice as many unique traders holding Trump shares than Harris shares. This means that becoming a Trump whale is much more difficult and is a testament to the Trump whale’s conviction.
The trend is even more exaggerated when examining who will win the popular vote on Polymarket.
The Trump whale holds over 40% of all shares that Trump earns the most votes.
As for Harris?
The top five largest shareholders that she’ll win the popular vote collectively hold 20% of those shares.
By and large, the French Trump whale has the most to win — or lose this week.
Liam Kelly is DL News Berlin-based DeFi Correspondent. Got a tip? Email at liam@dlnews.com.
