As the 2024 U.S. election approaches, the tension in the capital markets has reached a critical point, and the cryptocurrency market is particularly fraught. This year, Trump, who has experienced life-and-death crises, is campaigning vigorously, and his declaration to 'make America a cryptocurrency hub' has instantly ignited enthusiasm in the crypto circle. However, history repeatedly reminds us that subtle changes in policy often become the dividing line for the market.
Looking back at Roosevelt's 'New Deal' after he took office in 1933, the rules of the American economy were completely reshaped overnight, forcing a large number of companies to adapt to new policy directions, reshuffling the market landscape. This time, the cryptocurrency industry may face a similar fate. As Harris steadily advances in her campaign, her policy stance, which is extremely consistent with Biden's, suggests that the current government's tough attitude toward cryptocurrencies may continue to escalate. For a cryptocurrency market that advocates freedom and decentralization, this policy direction may be a true test of life and death.
According to data from prediction site Polymarket, Trump's chance of winning is currently 57.6%, while Harris's is 42.4%. Although the prediction market indicates a higher probability of Trump's victory, the latest poll from 538/ABC News shows that Harris leads Trump by 1 percentage point in nationwide polls at 48.9%, while Trump leads Harris in several swing states, including Pennsylvania.
Therefore, although many cryptocurrency supporters are more optimistic about Trump's election, Harris still has a chance to succeed.
Historically, there have been presidents who were not expected to succeed but ultimately made a comeback.
Throughout U.S. history, there have been multiple instances where candidates initially deemed unlikely to succeed in the early stages of campaigning ultimately made a comeback.
In 1948, Truman was one of them. Polls showed he was trailing Republican candidate Thomas Dewey. Media and polling organizations even prematurely announced Dewey's victory, and some newspapers even printed the headline 'Dewey Defeats Truman'. However, Truman adopted a series of intensive campaigning efforts, directly appealing to voters, emphasizing the Democratic Party's achievements in economic and social policies, and ultimately won the election. This election is considered a classic case of polling failure.
In 1992, Clinton was also not a popular candidate within the Democratic Party during his campaign, facing a slump in the early stages due to a series of negative reports and scandals, and many experts predicted he would find it difficult to go the distance. However, due to his flexible campaign strategy, ability to communicate with the public, and the economic difficulties of the time, he gradually gained support. Ultimately, he defeated then-President George H.W. Bush and third-party candidate Ross Perot in a three-way election, successfully winning the election.
In 2016, Trump also staged a dramatic turnaround, initially seen as an 'unpromising' candidate in the Republican primary, and even severely underestimated by mainstream polls in the final election against Hillary Clinton. During the campaign, Trump garnered substantial support from voters with his strong populist style and appeals to America's middle and lower classes, particularly performing excellently in swing states, ultimately winning the election.
From this perspective, it is important not to jump to conclusions before the voting results are truly revealed. Just like Bitcoin experienced a black swan event during its strongest rally, no one can foresee the final outcome of the election in advance.
Harris's election: a disaster or a market adjustment? Market opinions are polarized.
First, we must acknowledge that if Harris is elected, there is a high probability that the policy tone from the Biden era will continue. At this moment, cryptocurrency investors' hearts feel a bit like riding a roller coaster.
Renowned analytical firm Bernstein's analysts have predicted that if Harris wins, Bitcoin's price may see a significant decline by the end of the year, potentially falling by 10%.
On the other hand, veteran cryptocurrency trader Crypto Rand remains much calmer. He believes that regardless of who takes over the White House, the overall direction of the cryptocurrency market will not change, and a bull market will eventually arrive, although the road may be a bit bumpy.
So, there are two key points here: first, Biden-style policies are unfriendly to cryptocurrencies; second, the market is speculating whether Harris will escalate regulation, causing greater uncertainty.
Crypto Rand stated that even so, Bitcoin may rebound by 2025, leading the entire market into a new bull market. These predictions are not unfounded, as the ups and downs of the cryptocurrency market have long been a norm. For some staunch supporters, this is just a short-term fluctuation and does not represent a reversal of the overall trend.
Continuation of regulatory policies: Gary Gensler's 'enforcement regulation' and the Biden administration's regulatory path.
We need to deeply understand how the Biden administration treats cryptocurrencies to more accurately predict Harris's policy direction. Since Biden took office, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), under the leadership of the current chair Gary Gensler, has initiated an 'enforcement regulatory' model, particularly against the cryptocurrency industry, which can be described as unyielding. The SEC has not only sued major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase but has also thoroughly tracked unregistered cryptocurrency securities. It is widely believed inside and outside the market that Gensler's regulatory approach carries obvious high-pressure characteristics; he has become the 'guardian of order' in the cryptocurrency market, but his methods have also attracted considerable controversy, with some accusing him of being a 'disruptor' of the market.
The following is a chronological review of some regulatory bills and enforcement actions from early 2021 to 2024 during Biden's term.
2021
March: The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) under the U.S. Department of the Treasury proposed to strengthen anti-money laundering (AML) and 'Know Your Customer' (KYC) requirements for cryptocurrencies, aimed at curbing their use in illegal activities.
August: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sued the cryptocurrency trading platform BitMEX, accusing it of failing to implement proper anti-money laundering and KYC measures. Ultimately, BitMEX agreed to pay a $100 million fine to settle with the CFTC.
2022
February: The SEC filed a lawsuit against the cryptocurrency lending platform BlockFi, accusing it of failing to register its interest account products as securities. Ultimately, BlockFi agreed to pay a $100 million fine.
March: President Biden signed an executive order regarding digital assets, requesting federal agencies to coordinate the development of a cryptocurrency regulatory framework aimed at protecting consumers, maintaining financial stability, combating illegal activities, and exploring the possibility of a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC).
June: The U.S. Department of Justice established a national cryptocurrency enforcement team, which immediately intervened in several cases, including tracking cryptocurrency assets from the illegal Silk Road trading platform and assisting in tracing international illegal transfers of cryptocurrency assets.
September: The U.S. Department of the Treasury released three reports on digital assets, focusing on the risks of cryptocurrencies in illegal finance, consumer protection, and payment systems, further clarifying the government's regulatory stance on cryptocurrencies.
October: The SEC began investigating the NFT project Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) under Yuga Labs due to concerns that its tokens might involve unregistered securities sales.
December: Following the FTX bankruptcy incident, the CFTC conducted an investigation into FTX in collaboration with the SEC and the Department of Justice, aiming to determine whether there was customer fund misuse, illegal misappropriation, and fraudulent activities.
2023
May: Bipartisan members of Congress proposed the 'Cryptocurrency Tax Fairness Act', suggesting implementing capital gains tax exemptions for small transactions to promote the everyday use of cryptocurrencies, ensuring that the industry is not hindered by complex tax systems.
August: The SEC filed a lawsuit against major cryptocurrency exchanges Binance and Coinbase, accusing them of not registering as securities exchanges, with some crypto assets being viewed as unregistered securities. This action by the SEC is seen as a comprehensive cleanup of the cryptocurrency market, especially imposing stricter compliance requirements on trading platforms that do not comply with securities regulations.
September: The Biden administration expressed its intention to further scrutinize all crypto assets that use proof-of-stake (PoS) mechanisms, intending to define them as securities. The SEC began to strengthen its regulation of PoS assets like Ethereum, stating that their voting rights structure is similar to traditional stocks and may need to comply with securities laws.
November: Binance agreed to pay a $4.3 billion fine to settle years of investigation by the U.S. government. Binance admitted to involvement in suspected money laundering, unlicensed money transfers, and violations of sanctions. Meanwhile, founder Zhao Changpeng (CZ) acknowledged the failure to maintain an effective anti-money laundering program and resigned as CEO.
2024
April: Zhao Changpeng was sentenced to four months in prison (now released) by the U.S. District Court in Seattle for violating U.S. anti-money laundering laws.
May: The U.S. House of Representatives passed the (21st Century Financial Innovation and Technology Act) (FIT21), laying the legal foundation for the regulation of digital assets, further clarifying the regulatory responsibilities of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), especially in the management and oversight of crypto assets and digital financial products. The FIT21 bill is seen as an important foundation for federal-level digital asset regulatory framework.
June: The U.S. Department of the Treasury issued a final rule requiring all cryptocurrency platforms to report user transaction details to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) starting in 2026, aimed at tightening cryptocurrency regulations in the tax domain and reducing tax evasion.
These events and bills undoubtedly indicate that the Biden administration's overall attitude toward cryptocurrencies is leaning toward strong regulation. Under Gary Gensler's leadership, the SEC has adopted an 'enforcement regulatory' approach, bringing the cryptocurrency industry under a stricter legal framework, requiring market participants to comply with regulatory standards.
It is worth noting that Gary Gensler's future role is currently undecided. Although Trump has promised to fire Gensler 'on the first day' if elected, legally he cannot directly determine the fate of the SEC chairman. Meanwhile, Harris has not yet made a formal statement on Gensler's reappointment, and market analysts generally believe that Gensler's 'enforcement regulatory' strategy may face resistance.
Well-known cryptocurrency analyst Crypto Rand bluntly stated that Gensler's policies are 'the biggest burden on the U.S. cryptocurrency industry.'
Rashan Colbert, the policy director of the U.S. decentralized exchange dYdX, also pointed out that if the new government could replace the SEC chairman, it would mark the end of overreach in enforcement and harmful regulation, potentially aiding the compliant development of the cryptocurrency market.
Billionaire investor Mark Cuban also expressed doubts about Gensler's enforcement method, believing that Harris's team tends to oppose the 'enforcement regulatory' model and hopes to promote the development of the cryptocurrency market through clear regulatory frameworks.
Cuban pointed out that Harris 'prefers clear regulatory rules rather than relying on litigation,' a method that allows companies not to have to relocate overseas to develop applications.
Moreover, some industry observers believe that even if Harris replaces Gensler, the enforcement power in the cryptocurrency market will not diminish. Venture capitalist Tim Draper further calls for a complete overhaul of U.S. securities laws, pointing out that the current Howe rules were established 80 years ago and are no longer suitable for the 'dynamic, continuously growing modern market environment'. The real breakthrough lies in whether it is possible to reduce industry uncertainty through more transparent and clear regulations. This point is of great concern in the market because a clear regulatory framework can help companies and investors make more stable layouts instead of feeling like they are walking a tightrope every time a policy is announced.
Global liquidity and market opportunities: Will loose monetary policies become the driving force for a bull market?
The chief economist of Bit Mining, Yang Youwei, pointed out that if Harris is elected, cryptocurrency investors should pay special attention to monetary liquidity in the global economy.
Here’s the key point: Will the so-called 'hot money' flow back into the cryptocurrency market again, becoming a catalyst for a new bull market? Yang Youwei's view is clear: the looser the monetary policy, the greater the likelihood of funds flowing into the cryptocurrency market. Considering the current global economic uncertainty and the generally loose policies adopted by various central banks, the influx of hot money could indeed bring more market opportunities.
The correlation between Bitcoin prices and global liquidity. Data Source: Lyn Alden.
Supporting this view is cryptocurrency entrepreneur Erik Finman. He believes that if the Federal Reserve adopts a looser stance under Harris's leadership, then even if regulatory challenges exist, increased market liquidity will still provide support for prices. In other words, as Harris's policies go further down the 'loose monetary' path, the bullish potential for the cryptocurrency market will grow.
However, all of this is predicated on whether the U.S. can withstand greater inflationary pressure. It is foreseeable that if Harris tries to continue implementing loose policies, she will inevitably encounter considerable fiscal pressure and market resistance. In such a scenario, companies and investors must be wary of the volatility risks in the cryptocurrency market and cannot easily ignore the chain reactions brought by monetary policies.
The lack of clear policies has sparked panic: Will the U.S. cryptocurrency industry be 'geographically fenced'?
For many participants in the cryptocurrency market, one significant flaw of Harris is her unclear attitude toward cryptocurrencies. In September of this year, Harris publicly stated for the first time that her government would encourage investment in artificial intelligence and digital assets to maintain America's competitiveness. However, it is evident that such a statement lacks detail and does not provide market reassurance. This ambiguity has raised concerns that she may continue Biden's tough approach, further increasing market uncertainty.
Venture capitalist Tim Draper pointedly noted that 'fear' has already begun to spread within the industry, especially among smaller cryptocurrency companies that are more sensitive to uncertainty. Instead of lingering indecisively over regulatory policies in the U.S., more and more companies are choosing to go overseas in search of a clearer policy environment. Currently, countries like Dubai and Singapore have more lenient and clear policies than the U.S., and the phenomenon of 'geographic fencing' is starting to appear in the U.S.
The policy director of the well-known decentralized platform dYdX, Colbert, further noted: 'Other countries are moving faster than the U.S. If the new U.S. government is unwilling to remain competitive in the cryptocurrency space, this trend will continue.' Even if the future Harris administration relaxes policies in some areas, lacking systematic and clear guidelines will inevitably push innovators towards more inclusive markets.
2024 Henley Cryptocurrency Adoption Index ranking of the top 10 countries. Source: Henley & Partners.
The investment immigration consultancy Henley & Partners released the (2024 Henley Cryptocurrency Adoption Index), ranking the cryptocurrency adoption status of different countries, placing the U.S. behind the UAE, Hong Kong, and Singapore.
Despite this, most large cryptocurrency companies have not left the U.S. Although the regulatory attitude of agencies has not been very friendly over the past few years, the U.S. market is indeed too tempting, and many crypto enterprises cannot afford to leave.
From this perspective, if Harris is elected president, the market clearly needs clear and strong policy signals to stabilize investor confidence. The current chairperson of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has sparked widespread controversy with a tough regulatory approach, and the market generally expects that Harris may appoint a new leader after taking office to alleviate industry dissatisfaction.
But the real challenge lies in whether the Harris administration can find an ideal balance—protecting the basic security of the market while promoting the vigorous development of the industry. Under a relatively loose monetary policy, if a stable policy environment can be provided, the potential of the cryptocurrency market will undoubtedly be unleashed.
Dogecoin amidst market volatility and the 'shouting king' Musk.
In the turbulent world of cryptocurrencies, Dogecoin has always been an 'outlier'. Unlike mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, Dogecoin not only has high volatility but also carries a sense of jest and self-mockery. Who would have thought that this cryptocurrency, originally a joke, would create a global frenzy under Musk's influence? This 'shouting king' Musk has already become the spokesperson for Dogecoin, frequently bringing Dogecoin into the mainstream spotlight through personal tweets and Tesla's financial management, using his personal influence to pave a broad path for this niche project.
So the question arises: if the 2024 U.S. election results in a Trump victory and Musk 'rises' to head the so-called 'Department Of Government Efficiency' (DOGE), the Dogecoin market will undoubtedly become more lively. But if Trump loses and Harris wins, what will happen?
Kamala Harris's policy stance has always been vague, which is not good news for the cryptocurrency market, especially for highly emotional Dogecoin investors.
Cryptocurrency analyst Crypto Rand predicts that if Harris successfully takes office, market panic may spread rapidly. Since Dogecoin investors tend to be more driven by short-term emotions, once policies are unclear, the market may enter a short-term sell-off mode. In other words, the price of Dogecoin is likely to experience a 'free fall', and if this panic is not dissipated in a timely manner, it will bring deeper market fluctuations.
Musk: Aligning with Trump and his theory of Harris as a 'puppet'.
By the way, Musk's performance in this election is also quite eye-catching. As the 'shouting king' in the tech circle who dares to speak and act, he has clearly aligned with Trump this year, even spending millions of dollars to support his campaign. Through the establishment of high-value prize lottery events, he aims to encourage more voters to participate in the election, especially in key states with tight election races. This Tesla CEO not only uses his social media influence to call for action but also directly supports the campaign through the American Political Action Committee (PAC), unreservedly standing on Trump's side.
More notably, Musk's view of Harris. In public, Musk has unreservedly called Harris a 'puppet' and stated that she lacks real decision-making power. In his remarks, Harris is viewed as a 'front-stage puppet'—a political tool lacking substantive decision-making authority. Musk's overt support as one of America's top billionaires is extremely rare in U.S. history, leading him to express that if Trump fails this time, he might be arrested and lose everything.
Dogecoin's 'emotional panic' in the market and future risks.
Compared to Bitcoin and Ethereum, Dogecoin's market structure relies more on sentiment-driven factors. Once investor confidence wavers, it can easily lead to a massive wave of sell-offs. In the past, with Musk's endorsement, Dogecoin's price often fluctuated rapidly in a short time, but if Kamala Harris takes office and the policies are unclear, whether Musk's influence can be maintained remains to be seen.
Especially with Tesla's third-quarter financial report coming out, showing a gradually stabilizing financial performance and unchanged Bitcoin holdings, whether Musk's enthusiasm for Dogecoin will be influenced by the political situation has also become a market focus.
If Trump loses, the political pressure Musk faces will rise sharply, and his activity level in the cryptocurrency market may significantly diminish. For Dogecoin, this is clearly not good news. After all, Musk's support is a significant reason for Dogecoin frequently trending in the public eye; once his shout-out effect fades, the price of Dogecoin may enter a period of emotionally driven volatility, even facing further downside risks.
Conclusion: Unclear policies + market turmoil, Dogecoin must be wary of a 'double blow'.
In summary, the unclear policies after Harris's election, the risk factor of Musk aligning with Trump, and the instability of investor sentiment all make Dogecoin's future uncertain. The future of Dogecoin is likely to be pulled between Harris's policy direction and Musk's personal influence. For investors, especially short-term speculators, it is crucial to stay alert to changes in market sentiment and avoid easily chasing rises and falls to prevent falling into unnecessary risks.
In summary, this 2024 election not only determines the political landscape of the United States for the next four years but may also become a watershed for the fate of Dogecoin and Musk.
Future Outlook: If Harris is really elected president, will she reshape the cryptocurrency market landscape?
With 48 hours to go until the U.S. election voting day, regardless of who takes over the White House, fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market seem inevitable. In the short term, strict regulatory control or the benefits of loose monetary policies will be just a peak or trough in the market wave; in the long term, the direction of the cryptocurrency market will not change because of this, but the road will become more tortuous and unpredictable.
As for where the future of cryptocurrencies will head, only heaven knows.
(The above content is excerpted and reproduced with permission from partner MarsBit, original link)
Statement: The article only represents the author's personal views and opinions, does not represent the views and positions of Block客, and all content and opinions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investors should make their own decisions and trades, and the author and Block客 will not bear any responsibility for any direct or indirect losses arising from investor transactions.
"If Kamala Harris is elected President of the United States, what major changes will the cryptocurrency industry face?" This article was first published on (Block客).
