In a recent report, Standard Chartered’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, Geoff Kendrick, outlined his team’s analysis of Bitcoin’s potential price movements following the U.S. presidential election. Kendrick’s team used daily Bitcoin volatility levels and popular strike prices to predict Bitcoin’s price trajectory and expects it to be around $73,000 on Election Day, i.e. November 5.
According to the report, if Trump wins the election, Bitcoin’s price could see an initial increase of approximately 4%, reaching about $76,000 once the election outcome is confirmed. Kendrick’s team further estimates a total price rise of around 10% in the days following the election. In the scenario where Republicans secure both the presidency and Congress, Standard Chartered has set a year-end target of $125,000 for Bitcoin based on the assumption that a Republican-led administration would favour crypto-friendly policies.
On the other hand, if Kamala Harris wins the presidency, Kendrick expects Bitcoin to trade lower initially. However, he still anticipates that Bitcoin will end 2024 at fresh highs, around $75,000. The projections are based on insights from options markets, which helped Standard Chartered estimate the likely post-election price moves.
Kendrick’s base case is that Bitcoin will reach around $73,000 by Election Day, driven by betting-market probabilities leaning toward a Trump win.
A day after Kenrick’s report was released, crypto analyst Alex Krüger shared his strategy for the 2024 U.S. presidential election, highlighting a shift in his investment approach.
On October 25, Krüger revealed on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that he initially planned to take leveraged positions in both Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) if it looked like former President Donald Trump might win the election. However, he has since removed ETH from his strategy, choosing to concentrate on SOL as a potentially stronger play under a Trump-led market.
Krüger explained that his strategy centers on election night, where he plans to use leverage—a technique likely involving perpetual futures contracts—on SOL if Trump shows a lead. He initially intended to include ETH as part of this strategy, but now he’s pivoted to focus exclusively on Solana. He mentioned that he expects SOL’s price to skyrocket in reaction to a Trump victory, although he anticipates some market volatility during the election night due to the complex way votes are counted and reported.
When asked about the specifics of his plan, Krüger noted that it all depends on his entry point on election night. He mentioned that he would likely leverage SOL with no less than a 10% buffer from the baseline, though he won’t have a definitive strategy until the night unfolds. Also, he said that he would also go long on SOL in the spot market, a position he’s committed to holding through the election.
Krüger’s pivot away from ETH is not due to a bearish outlook on the ETH/USD pair; rather, his hesitation stems from broader market trends and underlying metrics. Krüger highlighted that the ETH/BTC pair has been in a multi-year downtrend, and there hasn’t been a significant capitulation event to signal a potential reversal. This ongoing decline in ETH’s performance relative to Bitcoin suggests a shifting dynamic in investor sentiment.
He also pointed out that on-chain activity is moving away from Ethereum, indicating that user engagement is migrating to other platforms. Krüger added that while Layer 2 solutions are increasingly common within the Ethereum ecosystem, they have yet to generate substantial value that accrues directly to ETH.
In contrast, he noted that Solana appears to have hit “escape velocity,” solidifying its dominance in areas like DeFi and NFT trading. According to Krüger, Solana has outpaced Ethereum in the so-called “degen wars,” securing a larger and more active user base interested in speculative assets.
Krüger went on to say that regulatory changes could play a crucial role in shaping Ethereum’s future. He suggested that the potential departure of Gary Gensler, Chair of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), could create a more favorable environment for ETH.
A regulatory shift might enable ETH ETFs to stake their holdings, thereby making them more appealing to investors. However, Krüger pointed out that the same regulatory improvements could also benefit Solana, possibly leading to SOL-based ETFs. This dual advantage leaves Ethereum without a unique edge, according to Krüger’s analysis.
I was planning to lever long ETH and SOL on election night if Trump coming ahead, as my main liquid crypto plays. I've scratched ETH off. That's the only thing that has changed for me.Trump winning would be positive for altcoins. I'm not bearish on ETHUSD. But there are many…
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) October 25, 2024
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