Bitcoin Volatility Surges as Trump and Harris Head Into Tight Election Race
Expected price volatility of Bitcoin (BTC) surged to its highest since July, with political betting markets flashing an increasingly competitive U.S. presidential race in key battleground states, suggesting the cryptocurrency market is preparing for possible turbulence ahead of crucial political developments.
Data from Deribit, the largest cryptocurrency options exchange, showed that its Bitcoin implied volatility index leaped to 63.24% on an annualized basis. The reading, a forecast of how much prices could swing over the next month, signals rising market unease over the potential political and economic reset.
The seven-day implied volatility has leaped even higher, to 74.4% annually, way over the actual price swings of 41.4% experienced this week. The political environment has been shifting overall, but particularly in Pennsylvania, one of those key swing states. The implied probability of Donald Trump's win in Polymarket prediction markets has fallen from 61% to 53%. In fact, according to a New York Times/Siena survey, the most recent polling data is exceptionally tight between both parties.
This political uncertainty comes at the same time as some pretty high volatility in the price of Bitcoin. After almost reaching a new record of $73,500 earlier in the week, the cryptocurrency has now retreated back below $68,000.
The uncertainty has some ripple effects, going well beyond just cryptocurrency markets. The Ice BofA Move index, a measure of expected Treasury-note volatility, jumped to 135%—the highest since last October.
