Can Trump Return to the White House?

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is highly competitive, with Democratic candidate Harris having a certain advantage. On one hand, she leads Trump by a narrow margin in key swing states. A joint poll by The New York Times and Siena College shows that in seven key swing states, Harris leads Trump overall by 48% to 47%. Furthermore, her campaign focuses on issues such as healthcare reform, climate change, and social equity, which can attract some independent voters, young voters, and those concerned with these topics. On the other hand, the Democratic Party has certain experience in campaign strategy and resource integration, which can provide her with support.

However, Republican candidate Trump should not be underestimated. First, Trump has a loyal base of supporters who endorse his positions on immigration and economic policies. Second, some voters are dissatisfied with the current economic situation and social issues in the U.S., and Trump has consistently emphasized the need for change, which may attract voters eager for reform. Additionally, some predictions and analyses suggest scenarios favorable to Trump. The Complex Decision Analysis Center at Fudan University predicts through computer simulation that Trump is very likely to win again, with a probability exceeding 60%. The final result will depend on the voting situation in swing states. The electoral votes from swing states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina are crucial. If Harris can secure more swing states, she is more likely to be elected; conversely, Trump could have the opportunity to return to the White House. However, currently, the support rates in swing states for both sides are not significantly different, leaving a lot of uncertainty. Therefore, the outcome of this U.S. election is full of uncertainty and cannot be determined until the last moment.