The two most important events this week:
The retail speculation is:
- Harris elected, Bitcoin plummets 📉 50%
- Trump elected, Bitcoin soars 📈 100,000
1. The election results on November 5th may be announced that night. Remember the day Trump was elected, the market went from limit up to limit down, and many people got liquidated in a single day.
2. The interest rate meeting from November 6th to November 7th. If there is a rate cut, it may lead to a wave of increases. If not, it is likely to follow the original trend. Based on non-farm payroll data, this meeting is expected to cut by 25 basis points. However, if these two events are combined, the situation becomes complicated, and there may be a significant fluctuation.
The current Bitcoin market structure is clear. Whether Trump or Harris is elected, it will not disrupt the market structure. The market makers are responsible for the market trend and maximizing their interests, not for Trump or Harris.
Therefore, after the election results come out on the afternoon of the 6th, the market fluctuations may be far lower than most people's expectations. This has been verified countless times, such as on the night of the rate cut and when Trump attended the Bitcoin conference, etc.
The most likely scenario is that after the election results are announced, there will be a spike up/down. Then the market will continue on its path as it was. The Bitcoin market structure has been fully formed through more than half a year of decline/oscillation/position squeezing/accumulation, and will not be disrupted by a single event.
The benefit of the US election for market makers is the ability to exploit both sides, increase volatility, and create market divergence. It provides a narrative to tell. The US election is, after ETFs, the most advantageous tool for market makers to tell their stories.
