1. Current latest situation of the election
Authoritative odds market in the US:
Predict shows Harris's winning probability has reversed to lead
Kalshi shows both have equal winning probabilities
Don’t be misled by Polymarket, that's a market for non-Americans to bet
Poll situation:
Among the 7 swing states, Trump has weakened in Michigan and Wisconsin
The advantages in Pennsylvania and Nevada are also about to disappear
In the other three states, Trump is still leading
Yesterday, a poll in Iowa (a red state) showed a reversal by Harris, but overall Trump is still leading
Overall, the election situation is very tense, and the market is hesitant to bet recklessly. The election is on November 5, but it will take 3-7 days to release the results, and the market will certainly be unsettled during this time.
2. The election is crucial for the mid-term trend of BTC
If Trump comes to power:
Various favorable policies may come to fruition
American institutions are more likely to buy BTC
The fundamentals of BTC as digital gold will be better
If Harris comes to power:
The SEC is likely to continue its strict enforcement
Recent months' BTC bulls are in for a rough time
Investors in BTC ETF may stop-loss and flee
Moreover, the monetary policies and inflation expectations of the two are different, and the election results will affect the market in the next 3-6 months.
3. What will happen to BTC if Trump unexpectedly loses?
For the past two weeks, the market has been betting on Trump winning, but now the probability has decreased, those betting on this may need to run. The on-chain BTC contract positions are at a high, and the funding rate is not low. Institutions may continue to press down when they return to work on Monday.
If Trump really loses:
BTC may drop below 60,000 within a week
Initiate a downward wave 5
No good days ahead for the next quarter
BTC can only rely on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates
It may break 74,000 by mid-2025, but breaking 100,000 is somewhat difficult
4. How to operate next?
First, wait for the results of a few swing states, then act once the overall situation is set
If Trump wins:
Fully switch to spot
Focus on BTC, DOGE, SOL
If Harris wins:
Reduce positions in all coins, keeping spot below 30%
Wishing Trump and Elon’s team victory!
