Original author: Odaily

Reprint: Lawrence

November 5 is the presidential election day in the U.S. and will be a day that profoundly impacts the global situation for the next four years. In this upcoming U.S. election, the choices of voters will affect U.S. policy directions, China's policy responses, as well as trends in cryptocurrency and the stock market.

This post will detail the election mechanism, timeline, winning probabilities, and public opinions about them. Through these analyses, whether you are a spectator enthusiastic about the election or an investor interested in the cryptocurrency market, you will gain a deeper understanding of the current political situation and its potential impact on the future economy.

Background knowledge: Why did Trump win the U.S. presidency in 2016 with fewer votes?

U.S. presidential elections are held every four years. First, each state conducts primaries or caucuses, where voters vote for their preferred candidates. Based on the primary results, major parties hold national conventions to formally nominate their candidates. The leading candidates currently are Donald Trump from the Republican Party and Kamala Harris from the Democratic Party.

The formal presidential election takes place on the first Tuesday of November (this year it is November 5 in U.S. local time). In this election, voters actually vote for electors (similar to representatives of the public), rather than directly voting for one of the two candidates. Each state allocates electors based on its population, with a total of 538 electors across the country. Most states adopt a 'winner-takes-all' system, meaning that the candidate receiving the most votes in a state will receive all of that state's electoral votes.

Here is the first point to note in the U.S. presidential election: in the U.S. presidential election, voters cast their votes for electors, who typically represent a specific political party. The political stance of these electors, as well as whether they support Trump or Harris, is generally clarified before the election. Therefore, the results of the voters' votes often directly reflect which candidate will receive the support of the majority of electors, or even all the electoral votes from that state, which is the traditional concept of 'red states' and 'blue states.'

For example, if elector A representing the Democratic Party in California receives the most popular votes in that state, then all of California's electoral votes (a total of 55 electoral votes) will belong to the Democratic candidate Harris, regardless of the political stance of other electors.

Therefore, by statistically analyzing the distribution of electoral votes in November, one can usually predict quite accurately who will become president, and we will see this result next week.

To be elected president, a candidate needs to secure at least 270 electoral votes. The election results are usually officially confirmed during the electoral college meeting in December, when the electors cast their votes to elect the new president. The second point to note is: although electors generally vote according to the will of the voters (which is their previously advertised political stance), in certain cases, individual electors may choose to 'betray' their candidate and vote for another candidate. While this situation is relatively rare, it does exist, so theoretically, the final voting results of the electoral college do not necessarily equate to the voting results of the voters.

In the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Hillary Clinton received more popular votes, approximately 65 million, accounting for 48.2% of the total votes. In contrast, Donald Trump received about 63 million votes, accounting for 46.1% of the total votes. Despite Clinton leading in popular votes, Trump won more electoral votes and was ultimately elected president with 304 votes to 227 votes.

The final electoral results this year are expected to be announced around the midnight of November 5, U.S. local time, which is the afternoon of November 6, Beijing time.

Trump vs. Harris: What are the winning probabilities?

Currently, in most polls predicted by authoritative institutions, whether from media leaning towards the Democrats, Republicans, or neutral organizations, Harris still holds an advantage, but it is only by one or two percentage points. According to neutral media Project 538, the average of the major poll results shows that as of November 1, Harris has a winning probability of 48.0%, while Trump has a winning probability of 46.8%. Other data statistics websites show similar results, for example, The New York Times results show Harris at 49% compared to Trump's 48%; 270towin shows Harris at 48.4% compared to Trump's 47.2%.

Harris is leading in average polls by 1.3%. Source: Project 538

Moreover, previous results from Fox News (a Republican-leaning media) and CNN (a Democratic-leaning media) also corroborated this conclusion.

This result is somewhat at odds with the current results from the crypto prediction platform Polymarket. As of the time of this article's publication, the total amount in this prediction market has reached $2.38 billion, with a slight decline in Trump's winning probability and a corresponding increase in Harris's winning probability. It can be seen that the Polymarket market has been moving closer to the poll results over the past week, although Trump still firmly occupies the main position.

Presidential election predictions on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket

Breaking news: Little Zuckerberg turns against, Harris's Twitter gets bombarded.

Since the development of the election situation so far, many interesting things have happened. Not to mention business tycoons like Musk publicly supporting Trump, the previous 'apology letter' written by Meta CEO Zuckerberg to the Republicans has gone viral.

According to Sina Finance, on August 26, Zuckerberg stated in a letter to Jim Jordan, the Republican chair of the U.S. House Judiciary Committee, that he would maintain political 'neutrality' during this U.S. election cycle and stop donating to local government elections to avoid being perceived as politically biased. Previously, he was generally seen as a staunch supporter of the Democrats, and this letter may be his 'loyalty pledge' to the Republicans.

He also publicly criticized Biden administration officials for 'constantly' pressuring Facebook in 2021 to review pandemic-related posts. Zuckerberg said he felt 'regret' over the company's yielding to these requests. Some even believe that he switched to the Republican Party because he discovered trends in this opinion center, Facebook.

The U.S. House Judiciary Committee's X account publicly stated when releasing this letter: 'Mark Zuckerberg acknowledged three things in this letter—first, the Biden-Harris administration 'pressured' Facebook to censor Americans; second, Facebook censored Americans; third, Facebook suppressed information related to Hunter Biden's laptop.' According to Bloomberg, the authenticity of this letter has been confirmed by Meta.

Secondly, on the current X platform, debates are rampant, and most of the comments under candidate Harris's tweets are negative. Under her latest post, 'I will be the president for all Americans', the comment section is almost one-sided: 'You will not be any American's president', 'You will not become president at all', 'You can't even be the vice president for all Americans', people are saying below.

Harris's Twitter comment section, source: X

Almost all comments under Harris's Twitter are in this tone, somewhat similar to Trump's in 2016. Some netizens believe that the only reason to choose Harris is 'disliking Trump'.

Meme trends: Does Harris's Meme have a chance?

Currently, the trend of the largest Trump-themed Meme coin, MAGA, has remained between $3 and $4, with fluctuations not being significant, seemingly waiting for the final election results to be announced. This sideways trend has lasted for about two weeks.

MAGA trends, source: Coingecko

In contrast, for Harris, the recent Meme coin concept has started to rise, with KAMA's short-term surge reaching about 20%, increasing from around $0.006 to about $0.0099 now, with the market capitalization also increasing to $9.966 million. Although still small compared to Trump, it may reflect an increase in this market. After all, Trump's concept is already relatively mature, with various NFT concepts attracting hot money; Harris's related concept has relatively more room for growth.

KAMA trends, source: Coingecko

Here, Odaily Planet Daily reminds readers that Meme volatility is high, and this presidential election will be the most significant short-term volatility for concepts, so there is a high possibility of a 'Sell the news' event, meaning a candidate's victory could lead to not the expected surge in Meme tokens, but rather a collective sell-off by previous whale addresses, please be cautious of the risks.

However, in terms of the rapidly changing international situation, unless there are larger disruptive events in the future, including but not limited to: electors betraying their party leading to changes in the final December election results from the previously 'determined' results in November, a candidate and their party being found guilty of election fraud resulting in invalidation of the results, or events similar to the previous 'storming of Capitol Hill', or even a candidate meeting a fate similar to Kennedy, the election results will be the final expected release for Meme coins in the short term.

Attached is the timeline of the U.S. election so far.

February 2: A judge in Washington, D.C. indefinitely postponed Trump's election interference trial.

March 4: The U.S. Supreme Court unanimously ruled in the case of Trump v. Anderson that proposals from Colorado, Illinois, and Maine to remove Trump from the ballot based on the Fourteenth Amendment are unconstitutional.

May 30: Trump was convicted on all 34 counts in a trial in New York, becoming the first U.S. president to be convicted.

July 1: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 along ideological lines that Trump enjoys absolute immunity for actions within the core scope of his constitutional powers, at least enjoying assumed immunity for official actions at the external boundaries of his official responsibilities, while not enjoying immunity for non-official actions. Trump's sentencing date in New York has been postponed from July to September 2024, and other cases involving Trump may also be postponed to review the applicability of the Supreme Court ruling.

Since July 1, over 20 representatives have called for Biden to withdraw from the race.

July 13: Trump was shot at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, being shot in the ear. One bystander and the shooter were killed, and two others were injured.

July 15: The 2024 Republican National Convention will be held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Trump announced U.S. Senator JD Vance as his vice presidential candidate, and he was subsequently confirmed as the Republican presidential candidate.

July 17: Biden stated he would consider withdrawing from the race if officially diagnosed with a medical condition. Subsequently, Biden tested positive for COVID-19.

July 21: Biden announced his withdrawal from the race and initiated an 'emergency transition process' to proceed with the Democratic nomination. Vice President Kamala Harris announced her candidacy for president.

August 6: Kamala Harris announced Governor Tim Walz as her vice presidential candidate.

September 15: At Trump's International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, Florida, a shooting incident occurred while Trump was golfing. Trump was unharmed in the incident and was evacuated by Secret Service personnel.

October 29: Biden responded to a comedian via video call at a Trump rally at Madison Square Garden, calling Trump supporters 'garbage', which led to a rebuttal from Harris. This was seen by many as potentially damaging to the Democratic Party's efforts to attract undecided voters, while also making a large number of Trump supporters in America feel marginalized.

November 5 (the first Tuesday in November): Election Day.