The primary concern in the current U.S. election market is a potential repeat of the dramatic twists seen in 2020. Back then, Trump’s odds appeared overwhelmingly strong, with his chances of victory soaring to nearly 85% at one point, capturing the confidence of both the prediction markets and the broader community. However, unforeseen results in critical swing states quickly flipped the narrative.
In a matter of hours, Trump’s handicap price plummeted from 0.7 to 0.2, while his opponent's surged, doubling from 0.3 to 0.8. This rapid shift stunned many and underscored the volatility and unpredictability inherent in election markets, especially when unexpected voting patterns emerge in pivotal states. The fear of a similar scenario this time around keeps market participants on edge, as they brace for potential surprises that could once again disrupt expectations.
