BlockBeats reports that on November 3, the United States will begin its 2024 presidential election next Tuesday (November 5), and many major polls still show Trump and Harris in a dead heat. Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) shows that hedge funds and managers have accumulated $18 billion in long positions in dollars ahead of the U.S. election vote. Currently, Wall Street strategists generally believe that Trump's commitment to impose tariffs will support the dollar at least in the short term. Hedge funds and other speculative traders expect that the potential impact of the election on demand for safe-haven assets and the direction of tariffs will lead to further rebounds in the dollar.
The market generally believes that Trump's proposal to lower corporate taxes will benefit corporate profits, and therefore, if he wins, it will boost the U.S. stock market. In contrast, Harris's potential tax increase policy is seen as relatively negative for the stock market. However, Bank of America and Citigroup recently expressed opposing views. Analyst Marc Chandler stated, "Many positive possibilities for next week have already been priced in, so the risks tend to be on the downside. Gold recently hit a historic high but failed to break through $2800. It is noteworthy that when the U.S. stock market fell on October 31, gold also experienced significant sell-offs, almost as if it was being liquidated to meet margin requirements." (Jin Shi)
