1. Frequent changes in U.S. politics and their impacts
U.S. politics has long been characterized by alternating governance between the Democratic and Republican parties. After Obama left office in 2016, Trump came to power and abolished two core policies that Obama had worked hard on for years: TPP and universal healthcare. This meant that Obama left no political legacy and reflected the shock to policy continuity caused by the change of ruling factions. Trump's frenzied withdrawal from international agreements and trade wars against allies greatly consumed America's national credit. After Biden took office, he overturned Trump's policies, and such repeated turmoil is detrimental to the long-term implementation of U.S. policies and has caused changes in the positions of some countries.
From the perspective of the domestic environment in the U.S., a four-year term makes it difficult to implement long-term effective policies, and the U.S. situation requires a certain degree of stability. The world's richest man, Musk, has stated that if the Democratic Party is elected, some risks may arise, including the potential for a full civil war in the U.S. Polls from the UK (The Times) also show that one-quarter of Americans believe a civil war may break out this year. Relevant documents from the U.S. Department of Defense also indicate that under certain specific circumstances, the military may use lethal force against citizens, which reflects the sharpness of domestic contradictions in the U.S.
2. The root of social contradictions in the U.S.
The root of social contradictions in the U.S. lies in the pursuit of profit maximization by capital groups through globalization, leading to the hollowing out of manufacturing, massive unemployment, reduced income, and widening wealth gaps. The conflict between the lower-class rednecks and Chinese elites as well as illegal immigrants is becoming increasingly sharp. In this situation, if the Democratic Party continues to be elected, the lower-class whites in the U.S. may see no hope, which could trigger internal conflicts.
3. Trump's policy proposals and their impacts
(1) Macroeconomic level
From a macro perspective, if Trump is elected, although his frequent changes in ruling factions are not conducive to the long-term execution of U.S. policies, they can create more development space for other countries.
(2) Microeconomic level
1. Core economic proposals
- Trump's economic proposals mainly include significant tax cuts, restricting illegal immigration, greatly increasing import tariffs, and forcing the Federal Reserve to make significant interest rate cuts. His basic support comes from America's rednecks, and his core policy is to solve domestic employment issues through the return of manufacturing, achieving the goals of white Americans.
2. Impact of various policies
- Tax cuts: Can reduce corporate costs, enhance corporate profitability, and attract business development.
- Restricting illegal immigration: Reducing competition in the job market, making it easier for lower-class whites to find jobs, but it is a significant blow to those who want to immigrate to the U.S. It may also improve the online environment.
- Increasing import tariffs: On the surface, it affects our foreign trade export enterprises, but in reality, China's industrial upgrade has been significant, and the effect of U.S. tariffs is limited. Instead, it may lead to higher inflation due to the loss of Chinese goods.
- Forcing the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates: If Trump is elected, forcing a rate cut may bring a series of impacts. The last round of interest rate cuts in the U.S. was from July 31, 2019, to March 15, 2020, during which our country's stock and housing markets experienced corresponding changes. If Trump forces interest rate cuts again, it may bring opportunities to our economy, such as a potential decrease in mortgage rates and a possible market rally in stocks, but this also requires individuals to have vision and grasping ability.
4. Comprehensive considerations of Trump's election
From a global interest perspective, the U.S. is a large country with a massive nuclear arsenal and abundant weapon supplies. In the current global situation, an out-of-control U.S. poses the greatest risk to the world. Although it may seem that chaos in the U.S. aligns with the interests of other countries, considering its potential enormous harm, allowing Trump to be elected to stabilize the domestic rednecks in the U.S. and achieve a relatively smooth power transition is a more beneficial choice for reshaping the global order.
