1) There are only three days left until the voting day of the US presidential election on November 5, 2024. In the final stage of the election, a "small episode" occurred - "Sleepyhead" Biden actually called Trump's supporters "garbage", and then Trump actually drove a garbage truck to the campaign site and printed his election slogan on the garbage truck.
2) The Democratic Party's practice of making personal attacks on supporters of its rivals is simply the best way to mobilize Trump supporters at the last minute. No wonder Harris quickly distanced herself from Biden's remarks. Elon Musk, an American celebrity entrepreneur and "super internet celebrity", specifically retweeted the photo of Trump driving a garbage truck and commented, "This is a genius counterattack." This tweet has received 380,000 likes. At this point in the 2024 US presidential election, Musk has become Trump's most influential "advocate", without a doubt.
3) In terms of popularity on the American social media platform X, Harris is barely a drop in the bucket compared to Trump. Trump's post boasting about the peace in the Middle East during his tenure received 160,000 likes. In another post, Trump said that his campaign was all about providing solutions to problems, while Harris' campaign was about creating hatred, including calling him Hitler. This post received 430,000 likes.
5) On the other hand, Harris’ posts on X have only a few thousand likes, and the most recent one has only tens of thousands of likes. This is too few for a Democratic presidential candidate.
6) From the perspective of online popularity, Harris is not at all comparable to Trump. This actually illustrates a problem. Harris served as vice president for 4 years, with very poor ability and few achievements. She is almost like a "transparent person". Her chance to participate in the 2024 US presidential election can be said to be "picked up". In July 2024, after the first presidential election debate, the truth that Biden suffered from severe Alzheimer's disease could no longer be hidden. The Democratic Party broke tradition and replaced Biden through "backroom politics" and pushed Harrah to the top. So far, Harris has only had more than three months of full-time campaign time. Harris's popularity, influence and personal charm are completely incomparable to Trump, who has been the president of the United States for 4 years and is also a "super internet celebrity".
7) In the 2024 US presidential election, Musk unusually jumped out and "all in" Trump. This is an extremely risky and unusual move for an entrepreneur. Even Musk himself admitted that if Harris was elected, he would be finished. So far, Musk has invested about $120 million to support Trump. Musk is not stupid. The reason why he dared to do this is that he believed that Harris had no hope of being elected as the US president. He is aiming to become the "King Maker" of the 2024 US presidential election. Once Trump is elected, Musk will not only have the opportunity to directly participate in the operation of the US government and gain huge political influence, but also receive a steady stream of large government contracts from the US government. Musk will become the most influential businessman in the United States, at least in recent decades.
8) At this point in the 2024 US presidential election, everyone is asking, "Who will be elected?" Let's look at some reliable prediction data. First, look at the comprehensive poll results of the realcearpolitics website. In 7 key states, Trump is leading in 5. In national polls, Trump is also 0.4 percentage points ahead of Harris. Due to the special electoral system, Hillary won the popular vote in 2016, but still lost in the end. This time, if Harris can't even win the popular vote, her hope of winning is very slim.
9) Let’s take a look at the comprehensive betting results on the realcearpolitics website. Trump is ahead of Harris with a 63.1% favorability rate to 35.8%. The latest data from the largest US prediction market, polymarket, also shows that Trump’s winning rate against Harris is currently 63.7% to 36.4%.
10) Currently, only the prediction of "538 website" (fivethirtyeight) is relatively conservative. The website simulated various results for the 2024 US presidential election, among which Trump's probability of winning is 51% and Harris's probability of winning is 49%. The website also believes that since the probability of winning or losing of the two is within the margin of error of the polls, both parties are likely to win the election with an overwhelming advantage.
We will know the result in 3 days.
Tell us what you predict. #你问我答 #美国大选后行情预测 #11月市场预测 #美国大选后涨或跌？
