📅 This week's financial events, next week's US election, and an overview of the Bitcoin futures and options market!
Thursday's core PCE data was a little higher than expected, but Friday's non-farm payrolls data was surprising, far below expectations, which caused the US dollar index to rise again. Some believe that this may indicate that Bitcoin will continue to pull back, because the US dollar index is usually a reverse indicator of Bitcoin.
In addition, despite the poor non-farm data, the US unemployment rate is still stable at 4.1%. Now everyone is betting that there will be a rate cut in November. According to CME data, the current probability of a rate cut is as high as 98.9%.
On Friday, the US stock market closed higher because of Amazon's good financial performance. Treasury yields also fell at first due to the impact of non-farm data, but then the market was cautious about buying bonds, and yields rose again.
Bitcoin also performed well this week, approaching its all-time high, and everyone is looking forward to the arrival of election week. However, Ethereum was relatively calm and failed to break through the 2.7k mark.
Moreover, ETFs have seen strong inflows this week, especially BlackRock's IBIT, which received $872 million on Wednesday alone, a record high. Although the price of Bitcoin briefly fell below $69,000 on Friday, market interest is still strong, and open interest in futures and options remains high.
In the short term, the implied volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum is quite high, and everyone is preparing for election week and buying a lot of put options to protect themselves. Speaking of the election, although Trump's approval rating was high before, it now seems that the gap between his approval rating and Harris's is narrowing.
However, no matter what the result is, the market may reappear the "good news is out" market after the election!
💬 What do you think of the market dynamics this week? What possible impact do you think the election results next week and the FOMC's rate cut decision at the end of the month will have on the market? Come to the comment section to talk about your views!
