Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | jk
November 5 will be the presidential election day in the U.S. and will profoundly influence the global situation for the next four years. In this upcoming U.S. election, voters' choices will affect U.S. policy direction, China’s policy response, and the trends of cryptocurrency and stock markets.
This informational post will detail the election mechanism, timeline, winning probabilities, and public opinions about them. Through this analysis, whether you are an enthusiastic spectator of the election or an investor interested in the cryptocurrency market, you will gain a deeper understanding of the current political situation and its potential impact on future economies.
Background knowledge: Why did Trump win the U.S. presidency in 2016 despite receiving fewer votes?
U.S. presidential elections are held every four years. First, each state conducts primaries or caucuses, where voters vote for their preferred candidates. Based on the primary results, major political parties hold national conventions to formally nominate their candidates. The leading candidates currently are Donald Trump for the Republicans and Kamala Harris for the Democrats.
The formal presidential election takes place on the first Tuesday of November (this year on November 5, U.S. local time). In this election, voters actually vote for electors (similar to representatives of the people), rather than directly voting for one of the two candidates. Each state allocates electors based on its population, with a total of 538 electors nationwide. Most states use a 'winner-takes-all' system, meaning that the candidate receiving the most votes in a state will receive all of that state's electoral votes.
Here is the first point to note in the U.S. presidential election: voters vote for electors, who usually represent specific political parties. The political stance of the electors, whether they support Trump or Harris, is usually clarified before the election, so the results of the voters' votes often directly reflect which candidate will receive the support of the majority of electors, or even all the electors from that state, which is what we traditionally refer to as the concept of 'red states' and 'blue states'.
For instance, if a California elector representing the Democrats receives the most popular votes in that state, all of California's electoral votes (a total of 55 electoral votes) will belong to the Democratic candidate Harris, regardless of the political stance of other electors.
Therefore, by statistically analyzing the distribution of electoral votes in November, one can usually predict with considerable accuracy which candidate will ultimately become president, and we will see this result next week.
To be elected president, a candidate needs to receive at least 270 electoral votes. The election results are usually formally confirmed at the Electoral College meeting in December, where the electors cast their votes to elect the new president. The second point to note is that although electors generally vote according to the will of the voters (that is, their previously advertised political stance), in some cases, individual electors may choose to 'betray' their candidate and vote for another candidate. Although this situation is relatively rare, it does exist, so theoretically, the final voting result of the Electoral College does not necessarily equate to the voters' voting results.
In the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Hillary Clinton received more popular votes, approximately 65 million votes, accounting for 48.2% of the total votes. Donald Trump received approximately 63 million votes, accounting for 46.1% of the total votes. Although Hillary led in popular votes, Trump won more electoral votes, ultimately being elected president with a result of 304 votes to 227 votes.
This year's final results of the electoral votes will likely be announced in the early hours of November 5, U.S. local time, which corresponds to the afternoon of November 6, Beijing time.
Trump vs. Harris: What are the winning probabilities?
Currently, in most polls predicted by authoritative institutions, whether from media biased towards the Democrats, Republicans, or neutral institutions, Harris still holds an advantage, but it is only one or two percentage points. According to the neutral media Project 538, the average of the current major poll results shows that as of November 1, Harris has a winning probability of 48.0%, while Trump has a winning probability of 46.8%. Other data statistical websites have similar results; for example, the New York Times results show Harris at 49% compared to Trump's 48%; the 270towin results show Harris at 48.4% versus Trump's 47.2%.
Harris is averaging a 1.3% lead in polls. Source: Project 538
Previous results from Fox News (a Republican-leaning media) and CNN (a Democratic-leaning media) also support this conclusion.
This result differs significantly from the current results represented by the crypto prediction platform Polymarket; according to an earlier article published by Odaily Planet Daily (With the U.S. election approaching, is Polymarket's data more credible?), it can be seen that Trump's winning probability was stable at around 60%, while Harris was below 40%. As of the release of this article, the total amount in the prediction market has reached $2.38 billion, with Trump’s winning probability slightly declining and Harris’s winning probability correspondingly increasing. It can be seen that the Polymarket market has been approaching poll results in the past week, although Trump still firmly occupies the main position.
Presidential election predictions on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket
Gossip frontline: Zuckerberg turns against, Harris's Twitter is bombarded.
As the election situation has developed so far, many amusing things have happened. Business tycoons like Musk publicly support Trump, not to mention a 'apology letter' written by Meta CEO Zuckerberg to the Republicans, which exploded on the internet.
According to Sina Finance, on August 26, Zuckerberg stated in a letter to Jim Jordan, the Republican chairman of the U.S. House Judiciary Committee, that he will remain politically 'neutral' during this U.S. election cycle and will stop making donations to local government elections to avoid being perceived as having political bias. Previously, he was generally seen as a staunch supporter of the Democrats, and this letter might be his 'testimony' to the Republicans.
He also publicly criticized Biden administration officials for 'constantly' pressuring Facebook in 2021 to censor posts related to the pandemic. Zuckerberg expressed that he regretted the company's capitulation to these demands. Some even believe that it was because he discovered trends in this opinion center, which led him to switch to the Republicans.
When the House Judiciary Committee's X account publicly released this letter, it stated: 'Mark Zuckerberg acknowledged three things in this letter—first, that the Biden-Harris administration 'pressured' Facebook to censor Americans; second, that Facebook censored Americans; and third, that Facebook suppressed information about Hunter Biden's laptop.' According to Bloomberg, the authenticity of this letter has been confirmed by Meta.
Secondly, on the current X platform, debates are rampant, and almost all comments under candidate Harris's tweets are derogatory. Under her latest post, 'I will be the president for all Americans', the comment section is overwhelmingly negative: 'You will not be any American's president', 'You will not become president at all', 'You can't even be considered the vice president for all Americans', people say.
Harris's Twitter comment section, source: X
Almost all comments under Harris's tweets have this tone, which is somewhat similar to Trump in 2016. Some internet users believe that the only reason to choose Harris is 'dislike for Trump'.
Meme trend: Does Harris's Meme have a chance?
Currently, the largest Meme coin in Trump's concept, MAGA, has maintained a trading range between $3 and $4, with some fluctuations but not significant, seemingly waiting for the final election results to be announced. This sideways trend has lasted for about two weeks.
MAGA trend, source: Coingecko
In contrast, Harris's recent Meme coin concept has started to rise, with KAMA's short-term increase reaching about 20%, rising from around $0.006 to now approximately $0.0099, and the market capitalization has also increased to $9.966 million. Although it is still small compared to Trump, it may reflect growth in this market. After all, Trump’s concept is relatively mature and has attracted hot money from major NFT concepts, while Harris’s related concept space is relatively larger.
KAMA trend, source: Coingecko
Here, Odaily Planet Daily reminds all readers that the Meme volatility is quite large, and this presidential election will be the biggest fluctuation of the concept in the short term. Therefore, there is a significant possibility of a 'Sell the news' event, where the victory of a candidate may not lead to the expected surge in Meme tokens, but rather a collective sell-off by previous whale addresses. Please pay attention to the risks.
However, regarding the ever-changing international situation, unless larger disruptive expected events occur in the future, including but not limited to: electors betraying their party leading to changes in the final December election results from the predetermined November results, a candidate and their party being discovered to have committed electoral fraud rendering the results invalid, or a repeat of the previous 'storming the Capitol' incident, or even a candidate meeting a fate similar to Kennedy's, the election results will be the final expected release of Meme coins in the short term.
Attached is the timeline of the U.S. presidential election so far.
February 2: A judge in Washington, D.C. indefinitely postponed Trump's election interference trial.
March 4: The U.S. Supreme Court unanimously ruled in the case of Trump v. Anderson that the proposal by Colorado and Illinois and Maine to remove Trump from the ballot based on the Fourteenth Amendment is unconstitutional.
May 30: Trump was found guilty on all 34 charges in a trial in New York, becoming the first U.S. president to be convicted.
July 1: The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3 in Trump's case, along ideological lines, ruling that Trump enjoys absolute immunity for actions within the core scope of his constitutional authority, at least presumed immunity for official actions outside the boundaries of his official responsibilities, while no immunity applies to unofficial actions. Trump's conviction sentencing date in New York was postponed from July to September 2024, and the trial dates for other cases involving Trump may also be postponed to review the applicability of the Supreme Court’s ruling.
Since July 1, more than 20 representatives have called for Biden to withdraw from the race.
July 13: Trump was shot in the ear during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. One bystander and the shooter were killed, and two others were injured.
July 15: The 2024 Republican National Convention is held in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Trump announces U.S. Senator JD Vance as his vice presidential candidate, who is then confirmed as the Republican presidential nominee.
July 17: Biden stated that he would consider withdrawing from the race if officially diagnosed with a medical condition. Subsequently, Biden tested positive for COVID-19.
July 21: Biden announced his withdrawal from the race and initiated an 'emergency transition process' for the Democratic nomination. Vice President Kamala Harris announced she would run for president.
August 6: Kamala Harris announced Governor Tim Walz as her vice presidential candidate.
September 15: A shooting incident occurred while Trump was golfing at his golf club in West Palm Beach, Florida. Trump was not injured in the incident and was evacuated by Secret Service personnel.
October 29: Biden responded via video call to a comedian at a rally held by Trump at Madison Square Garden, calling Trump’s supporters 'garbage', which led to a rebuttal from Harris. This was seen by many as potentially damaging to the Democratic Party's efforts to attract undecided voters, while also making many Trump supporters in the U.S. feel marginalized. November 5 (the first Tuesday in November): Election Day.
