Last night's non-farm payroll data shocked the market, with the reported employment numbers being only about one-tenth of expectations. Even more bizarrely, from U.S. stocks to BTC, risk assets did not follow the pattern of 'employment collapse => economic recession => risk asset decline', but instead all rose sharply. It had to be forcibly explained as 'employment collapse => the Fed must cut rates => risk assets rise'.
However, before the non-farm data was released, the market had already priced in over a 90% probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in November. Such bad data only adds another 10%, making it a certainty for a rate cut. How could the risk of recession be wiped out? Looking closely at the intraday data, it turned out to be a case of rising first and then falling.
This naturally linked to BTC taking a roller coaster ride, surging from 70k to nearly 71.5k at 20:30, then suddenly plummeting at 22:30, diving sharply from above 71k to below 69k.
Last night's surge and retreat directly caused the positions on major derivatives exchanges such as Binance, OK, and Bybit to decline sharply; this indicates that the smart money on both sides significantly exited last night to avoid the impending large volatility. Therefore, everyone might consider reducing their positions next.
This weekend may be different from usual; with the election day approaching, control is becoming more frequent, so everyone must pay attention to the volatility.
The panic in the news has already triggered some whales to sell off large amounts, and the market is becoming increasingly unstable. It seems that no matter who the White House leader is, the market is highly likely to flash crash. Of course, these are just some of the things the market is reflecting back to us at the moment; how things will turn out is left to time to decide. What we need to do is firmly protect our principal and seize the opportunity to strike decisively.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin shows very strong resistance on the daily chart. The consecutive three bearish candles have formed a descending box pattern, and the position at 69,700 is still the upper edge of the box. According to the trend, the probability of a bearish engulfing candle following a bullish one is very high.
So pay attention to the gradual decline these days, but I suggest not to chase too aggressively; technically, in the face of news, small strategies are insignificant. You must recognize the larger trend!
Every time there is a decline, I advise you not to cut losses casually. Never reverse your operations; when there is a big rise, we sell slowly.
In the case of a big drop, we bravely buy the bloodied chips. Why do the most people lose money in a bull market?
In the current environment, the market is in a bottom area, but it may not necessarily be the lowest point. We can't buy at the lowest point, and it doesn't matter much if we do; what you can actually take is what matters to you. Can one person finish a big pot of rice?
Being at the bottom doesn't mean it will reverse immediately; most of the time, it won't. How confident are you in your tokens? What will you do if they don't rise for a long time at the bottom? Watching others' coins soar, can you resist the temptation? Does certain information stir something in your heart?
In the long term for spot trading, my best strategy is to hold stable mainstream coins, for instance, if mainstream coins really haven't retraced much during a pullback, then add leading tokens, and cautiously enter some early-stage potential tokens without making any swings.
