Non-farm shock! Bitcoin plunges to sixty thousand, smart money exits! Are big fluctuations coming?
Last night, the non-farm data stunned the market, with the reported number of jobs being only about one-tenth of expectations. Even more bizarrely, from U.S. stocks to BTC, risk assets did not follow the path of "job collapse => economic recession => risk asset decline" this time, but instead rose sharply. Thus, it had to be forcibly explained as "job collapse => the Federal Reserve must cut rates => risk asset increase".
However, before the non-farm data was released, the market had already priced in over a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve would cut rates by 25bp in November. With such poor data coming out, it only adds another 10%, making it a certainty for a rate cut. How could the risk of recession be wiped out? Let's pull up the intraday data and take a closer look. It turns out it was a case of rising first and then falling.
