Original Title: The Trump-Betting Whale Speaks Out: 'I Have Absolutely No Political Agenda' Original Author: Alexander Osipovich, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Original Translation: zhouzhou, BlockBeats
Editor's note: This article describes the situation of a French trader who calls himself Théo, betting on Trump's victory on the prediction market Polymarket, with bets exceeding $30 million, expecting Trump to win by a large margin. Théo insists he has no political motives, only to make money, but due to the massive funds, he can hardly withdraw these bets and bears a huge risk.
The following is the original content (the original content has been reorganized for easier reading):
The mysterious person betting over $30 million on Trump's victory stated: 'I do not intend to manipulate the U.S. election.'
The mysterious person betting over $30 million on Trump's victory hopes the outside world understands he has no intention of manipulating the U.S. election. 'My only aim is to make money,' said the man who calls himself 'Théo' in a Zoom interview with The Wall Street Journal earlier this week. He introduced himself as French, having lived in the U.S., and previously worked as a trader in several banks.
Théo's huge bets on Polymarket have drawn widespread attention, as this prediction market is not open to Americans. Last month, The Wall Street Journal reported that four accounts systematically purchased bets on Trump's victory on the platform, raising the chances of Trump defeating Vice President Kamala Harris. Blockchain data shows that the funds in these accounts all came from the same cryptocurrency exchange, sparking discussions about the motives behind the 'Trump whale'.
Last week, New York-based Polymarket stated that it had contacted this 'Trump whale' and launched an investigation into this betting. The company introduced the bettor as a French finance professional with extensive trading experience.
While attending a rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, the shadow of former President Trump was cast on an American flag. (Photo: Brendan McDermid/Reuters)
Trump's projection on the American flag: the 'whale' in the shadow
Polymarket stated: 'According to our investigation, we learned this person took directional positions based on personal views of the election. The details of Polymarket's statement align with Théo's self-description, and he confirmed he has communicated with members of Polymarket's legal and compliance team.'
Currently, election observers are meticulously analyzing various data in an effort to predict the outcome of what is considered the most intense and closest presidential election in U.S. history. Prediction markets, as platforms that allow people to bet on various potential events, have become one way to anticipate election results. Historical research shows that candidates with the highest odds in prediction markets before the election usually end up winning the presidency.
However, the emergence of the 'Trump whale' has exposed the limitations of current prediction markets: Although trading volume on Polymarket has surged this year, the market size remains relatively small and is still easily manipulated by a wealthy and outspoken investor through multi-million dollar bets.
Théo: The Mysterious Bets of the Anonymous Whale
After an article about his betting was published on October 18, Théo contacted The Wall Street Journal via email. To prove he is indeed a 'Trump whale' on Polymarket, the paper asked him to place a bet on whether Taylor Swift would announce her pregnancy in 2024—one of many non-political small bets on the platform. A few minutes later, the Polymarket website showed that an account named 'Theo4' did place a small bet on Swift's pregnancy.
In the Zoom call, Théo, wearing a gray Nike sweater with a neatly trimmed beard, spoke in English with a slight accent, stating that he made his betting decision after analyzing how polls underestimated Trump's support, denying speculation that he was creating momentum for Trump through his bets.
Théo refused to disclose his real name, and The Wall Street Journal was unable to verify all the details of his story. Although he claims these bets are made with his own funds, the authenticity cannot be determined, nor can it be ruled out that he has connections to any political organizations or Trump allies.
'I absolutely have no political agenda,' Théo wrote in his initial email.
Théo stated that he prefers to remain anonymous because his friends and children are not aware of his wealth situation, and he does not want them to know about his bets on Trump. He describes himself as a seasoned financial investor willing to risk tens of millions of dollars in highly confident trades, but political betting is a new field for him.
Théo said that earlier this year he started paying attention to American polling data and found that many polls in 2016 and 2020 underestimated Trump's support. He believes that if Trump exceeds expectations again this year, he will defeat Kamala Harris. Théo also mentioned the 'shy Trump supporter effect'—that some voters are unwilling to indicate their support for Trump to polling organizations.
'I know many Americans who will vote for Trump but won’t tell you.' Théo expressed skepticism about the adjustments polling organizations made to correct issues from 2016 and 2020, saying he 'has not seen any substantial changes.'
Théo's Huge Bet on Trump: Confidence and Concerns
Over the course of two weeks, Théo sent dozens of emails to The Wall Street Journal, criticizing what he believes are mainstream media polls biased towards Harris. In the Zoom call, he claimed that media outlets supported by the Democrats are paving the way for social unrest by hyping intense competition in the campaign, while he expects Trump's overwhelming victory.
Théo stated that he was surprised by the attention to his trades; he started placing low-profile bets in August, purchasing millions of dollars in contracts for Trump's victory under the username Fredi9999. At that time, Trump's and Harris's odds on Polymarket were roughly equal.
To avoid dramatic price fluctuations, Théo spread his bets over several days. Nevertheless, as the betting amounts increased, Théo noticed that other traders would avoid making offers when buying from Fredi9999, making it difficult for him to place bets at ideal prices. Thus, he created three additional accounts in September and October to mask his buying behavior.
If Trump wins and achieves a landslide victory as he expects, Théo could gain over $80 million in profits, a doubling of his investment. His main bet is on Trump winning the electoral votes and he additionally wagered millions on Trump winning the popular vote—a scenario many observers consider unlikely. Moreover, he also placed bets on Trump winning in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
If Harris wins the election, Théo could lose the vast majority of his $30 million—this accounts for most of his liquid assets.
Due to his huge position in Polymarket, he can hardly close it without affecting the market. According to data from Polymarket Analytics, four 'Trump whale' accounts collectively hold about 25% of the contracts for Trump's electoral votes and over 40% of the contracts for the popular vote.
Théo admitted he feels nervous. He is confident in Trump's victory, believing the odds are between 80% and 90%, but he is also concerned that last-minute news could affect the outcome of his bets.
'Anything can happen at any time,' Théo said.
Original Link
