1. Large holders are preparing for a sell-off
Fact: More than 50% of the total Bitcoin supply is concentrated in the addresses of large investors — the so-called "whales." History shows that a mass sell-off by whales triggers a wave of panic selling among smaller investors.
Argument: At the end of 2017, when Bitcoin nearly reached $20,000, "whales" began selling at 60-70% of their holdings, leading to a crash to $3,000. The situation is similar now, and the price at $73,000 may once again trigger profit-taking.
2. Dependence on speculative interest
Fact: Bitcoin still has a weak real foundation in the economy and is mainly used for speculation. About 90% of transactions are related to trading rather than real applications (e.g., purchases or transfers).
Argument: The Bitcoin market is supported only by faith in growth. When speculative interest declines, the price crashes, as seen in 2018 and early 2021. At the level of $73,000, the price is too inflated for an asset that is essentially no more than a digital asset with limited use.
3. Lack of "new blood" and increase in short-term selling
Fact: The growth of new Bitcoin addresses has slowed by 30% in recent months, and the number of short-term traders taking profits is increasing. This indicates a decline in interest from new investors and a likely exit of major players.
Argument: During periods when the influx of new participants declines and short-term holders sell, the Bitcoin market enters a bear phase, as it did in 2018, resulting in a price drop of 85%.
