After Thursday's plunge, the three major U.S. stock indices rebounded on Friday, with non-farm payrolls disappointing the market's estimation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, while the approaching U.S. election adds more uncertainty to the market.
Non-farm payrolls disappoint, will the Federal Reserve definitely cut rates next week?
The non-farm payroll data for October released on Friday disappointed, with only an increase of 12,000 people, far below the market estimate of 100,000, marking the smallest increase since December 2020, affected by recent hurricanes and strike activities.
According to the CME FedWatch index, traders generally believe that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at the interest rate decision meeting on 11/7.
Bitcoin drops to 69K, is Mt. Gox redistributing to creditors again?
Bitcoin attempted to challenge its historical high at the end of October, peaking at $73,620, just a step away from this year's three-year high of $73,777.
According to a tweet from on-chain data company Arkham, the once-largest cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox sent 500 bitcoins, worth about $35 million, to two unlabeled wallets last night. This is the first transfer since September and has triggered market fears of selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Due to wallets not being labeled, it is currently unclear whether these transfers are part of future distributions to Mt. Gox creditors. Nevertheless, past actions of this kind have occurred before repayments through distributors like cryptocurrency exchanges Bitstamp and Kraken. According to Arkham data, Mt. Gox still holds 44,878 bitcoins, valued at over $3.1 billion.
However, in mid-October, Mt. Gox again postponed the deadline for repaying assets to creditors from the originally scheduled October 31, 2024, to October 31, 2025.
Important events next week
Warren Buffett's Berkshire (BRK) will release its earnings report on Saturday.
The U.S. presidential election is approaching on 11/5, and current polls still show a tug-of-war. Some analysts believe that if the election becomes a stalemate, the results may be delayed until after the Federal Reserve meeting, adding more uncertainty to the market.
The once AI meme stock Supermicro (SMCI) will also release its earnings report on 11/5, and the auditing firm Ernst & Young recently announced its resignation, causing the company's stock price to drop 45% last week.
The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on 11/7, having significantly cut rates by 50 basis points in September, marking the first rate cut since the pandemic began. The market generally believes that the Federal Reserve will maintain a gradual rate-cutting pace, leading the U.S. towards a soft landing or even no landing.
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