'Weekly Editor's Picks' is a 'functional' column of Odaily Planet Daily. On the basis of covering a large amount of real-time information weekly, the Planet Daily also publishes many high-quality in-depth analysis content, but they may be hidden in the information flow and hot news, passing you by.
Therefore, our editorial department will select some high-quality articles worth your time to read and collect from the content published over the past 7 days every Saturday, providing new insights for you in the crypto world from the perspectives of data analysis, industry judgment, and viewpoint output.
Now, let's read together:
Investment and Entrepreneurship.
The most important thing in making money in a bull market is to build your own trading system.
A trading system is a comprehensive set of signal rules regarding entry, exit, stop-loss, and take-profit.
To evaluate a trading system, one only needs to focus on one core key indicator, which is the 'profit-loss ratio'. The profit-loss ratio refers to the average profit amount divided by the average loss amount.
A complete operating system should include the following seven elements: cycle judgment, operational thinking, coin selection, timing, buying and selling rules, capital management, and risk control.
For example, Granville's Eight Principles of Operation uses moving averages to judge price trends, generally following these rules: when the average line rises, it's a buying opportunity; when it falls, it's a selling opportunity; when the average line turns from falling to rising, and the stock price breaks through the average line from below, it's the best buying time; when the average line turns from rising to falling, and the stock price falls below the average line from above, it's an important selling time.
Conversation with trader Benson: How do those who drive trading with data make money?
In volatile markets, Benson finds positions with higher safety margins to participate; at the same time, he focuses on BTC's inflow and exchange CVD indicators to judge market trends.
Benson allocates most of his positions (more than half) to quantitative strategies for coin-based appreciation, mainly holding coins; about 40% of his positions are mainly in stablecoins, used for guerrilla tactics, participating in on-chain trading or initial contract trading.
Benson's trading strategy does not pursue explosive growth but is primarily focused on stability. His goal is to outperform the market index, with performance so far this year approximately between 2 to 3 times.
Different targets have different operational methods. For potential market hot spots, Benson will hold until market attention or the bull market ends; for larger market cap tokens, he will analyze possible price trends through technical or fundamental analysis.
The unknown dark side: revealing market manipulation in Web 3.0.
Common manipulation methods in the Web 3.0 market include wash trading, spoofing, bear raiding, creating panic (FUD), sell wall manipulation, and pump and dump.
To prevent market manipulation, it is necessary to investigate the background of tokens, choose exchanges with high transparency, and remain vigilant and cautious in analysis.
Although regulatory frameworks and technologies are continuously improving and advancing, participants in the Web 3.0 field still need to remain vigilant.
Unlocking means dumping? How to solve the incentive misalignment problem in the crypto industry?
Web 3.0 allows some market participants to quickly obtain high returns without the project achieving product-market fit (PMF) or demonstrating actual utility, as obtaining liquidity is much easier. Token generation events (TGE) in Web 3.0 can happen at any time without the project reaching specific milestones. This weak correlation between success and exit in Web 3.0 has led to significant incentive misalignment, with many market participants pursuing short-term rewards without long-term success. Meanwhile, the lack of transparency and regulation in the cryptocurrency field allows 'predatory' behavior to profit without often facing penalties.
The beneficiaries of incentive misalignment are teams and founders, VCs, CEXs, market makers, and KOLs; the victims are retail investors and long-term participants.
Possible solutions to promote incentive alignment include regulatory intervention, non-action (waiting for market self-correction), encouraging self-discipline (transparency and accountability), improving token ownership design (avoiding low circulation at TGE, breaking free from fixed token supply models, designing convex profit-sharing for insiders, introducing goal-based unlocking mechanisms).
For the industry, immediate actions to address incentive misalignment include: acknowledging the problem, promoting transparency, holding wrongdoers accountable, and advocating for innovative token ownership design.
Airdrop opportunities and interaction guide.
A new round of PTR testing is opening, the last zero-cost opportunity for the hit chain game Seraph?
An article to understand major financing projects and early participation opportunities in Q4 2024.
This week’s must participate: Pump.fun transaction brushing, Morph mainnet new tasks, Space and Time galaxy tasks.
Interaction Guide: Re-financing $25 million for the 'Global Blind Computer' Nillion.
Q4 Airdrop Guide: 76 projects are competing for interaction.
Meme.
The hottest Meme concepts roundup: AI, artists, zoos, and my world.
Meme cultivation manual: Rebirth, I want to be a diamond hand (3) | Produced by Nan Zhi.
The profile of the following objects should be:
Low drawdown ranks first - finding the investment ratio under the worst loss scenario, cashing in after a certain number of consecutive losses;
Can make money - besides total profit and loss, also calculate details of input costs, not wanting to be an address that bets big on small, counting the proportion of high-position FOMO in losses;
Not betting big on small, but also reflecting the ability to enter at the bottom - counting the proportion of low-position entry in making money;
Low trading frequency - not buying frequently;
Holding for a long time - can also be counted in point 4 statistics, not cutting others.
Also recommended: (Increase PVP winning rate, save this advanced guide to Memecoin tools) (Is the Meme sector starting to play art? A grand appreciation from the perspective of the banana concept).
Ethereum.
Revisiting ETH's development and challenges: what exactly caused ETH to lose vitality?
The author believes that ETH's long-term trend is not problematic, as there are actually no direct competitors in the market, because in the narrative of Ethereum, the positioning of 'decentralized execution environment' is more critical in 'decentralization' rather than 'execution environment', and this basic situation has not changed.
The core reasons causing the current bottleneck in ETH development are twofold: firstly, the Restaking track has vampirically attacked the mainstream technological development path of Layer 2, diverting a large amount of resources from the ETH ecosystem. And the core mechanism constrained by Restaking does not create incremental demand for ETH, directly leading to the application side being unable to obtain sufficient development resources and user attention, causing promotion and user education to stagnate; secondly, key opinion leaders in the Ethereum ecosystem are becoming aristocratic, forming an interest class, which leads to a solidification phenomenon in class mobility, and the developer ecosystem lacks sufficient incentives, making innovation naturally appear weak.
Interpreting on-chain data: Why is ETH underperforming, and when will it rebound?
There are two metrics to judge whether ETH is attracting capital: the trading volume ratio of ETH on exchanges and the overall on-chain activity. By taking BTC as a reference, one can clearly see changes in capital preferences by observing the trading volume ratio of ETH relative to BTC.
From a historical inductive perspective, the conclusion is drawn: if Ethereum continues to maintain the status quo (both internally and externally), even with the support of ETFs, it will be difficult to obtain over 50% or more of the trading volume compared to BTC exchanges. This is because the market has already previewed this after the FOMO sentiment in March of this year.
To determine when to enter ETH, focus on:
The trading volume of ETH on exchanges has reached 50% or more of BTC (currently 35%);
Perhaps by the time it reaches 50%, ETH's price will have already risen, but it will certainly not be at its highest. For me, I need to first confirm the trend, then execute the strategy.
The number of active addresses on-chain reflects the prosperity of the ETH ecosystem to some extent, and it needs to develop a sustained upward shape.
The number of transactions and transaction amounts must be synchronized, especially the transaction amount, which is an important basis for measuring whether large funds are involved.
A new perspective on digital goods: will ETH's value rebound?
This article explores the differences between digital goods (such as L1 tokens) and quasi-equity tokens, proposing a new framework for evaluating digital assets, especially regarding the value of ETH. The author argues that ETH should be viewed as a sovereign commodity rather than a quasi-equity token, as commodities do not generate cash flow or dividends. It also points out how to eliminate the ambiguous definition of ETH assets, reaffirms the importance of commodity premiums, and highlights potential future valuation errors.
In the next part of this series, the author will explain how and why certain technical steps, such as determining gas tokens, sovereign supply, and consensus, are necessary conditions for establishing a commodity premium social contract.
Multi-ecosystem.
In-depth exploration of liquidity pool quality: Has Solana truly surpassed EVM chains?
In-depth study of liquidity pool quality on top blockchains, assessing whether Solana has surpassed all EVM chains in trading volume, referencing three criteria: established trading history, high liquidity, and sustained trading volume.
Without considering TVL, Solana has a significant trading volume among the top 150 pools, but it has not come close to surpassing all EVM chains, and it hasn't even surpassed Ethereum (although it is very close). Most of Solana's trading volume comes from pools with lower liquidity, a substantial part of which comes from Pump Fun. Ethereum remains the dominant player in DeFi, but Base is unexpectedly becoming a strong challenger due to having the highest trading volume pools.
CeFi & DeFi.
BitMEX Research: uncovering MicroStrategy's bond structure, when will it be liquidated?
MicroStrategy's debt size is $4.25 billion, calculated based on its borrowed principal. At the same time, the company's stock currently has a market value of $43 billion, and its Bitcoin holdings are valued at $17 billion. This shows that bonds do not constitute a significant part of MicroStrategy's capital structure.
However, if the price of Bitcoin experiences a significant drop, for instance, falling to around $15,000, and MicroStrategy cannot further leverage debt, analysts may need to consider Bitcoin's 'forced liquidation'. However, this potential forced liquidation time will concentrate on the expiration dates and options exercise dates mentioned in this article, which are spread from 2027 to 2031 and are very clear. Therefore, even if Bitcoin does fall to around $15,000, the likelihood of MicroStrategy being forced to sell Bitcoin to repay bonds remains low.
Behind the Meme boom, Perp DEX has become a beneficiary of on-chain liquidity aggregation.
Since the end of last year and the beginning of this year, Perp DEX protocols such as Hyperliquid, Drift, Surf, and Orderly have emerged, and the established leader dYdX has also become active again. With the rapid rise of the meme sector, the power of on-chain liquidity has further opened up new scenarios for the Perp DEX market.
Hyperliquid has already shown a strong wealth creation effect, but discussions are still largely concentrated within the English-speaking community. Based on Hyperliquid's spot trading rankings, it can be observed that with the ability to catch up to CEX trading experiences, token price increases of over 100% already offer experiences that rival CEX. Rather than playing contracts on CEX, it's better to trade spot on DEX.
Weekly hot topics recap.
In the past week, on October 30, BTC rose to 73650 USDT before retreating, just 130 USDT shy of its historical high (institutional market outlook), and on November 1 briefly fell below 69000 USDT; after being released, CZ made his first public appearance: focusing on education in the future, and not engaging in issuing new tokens in the short term; Canary Capital submitted a SOL ETF application to the US SEC.
Additionally, regarding policies and macro markets, The Washington Post will not endorse any presidential candidate for the first time since the 1980s; Morgan Stanley: The US presidential election may trigger serious market volatility, advising investors to focus on long-term strategies; Trump posted to celebrate the 16th anniversary of the Bitcoin white paper; Trump-related stocks surged; Immutable received a Wells notice from the US SEC, accused of violating securities laws; Russia released new cryptocurrency regulations, expanding the regulatory scope of mining and related infrastructures; Russia lifted the ban on Bitcoin mining, which may encourage other countries to mine Bitcoin; the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will launch a series of virtual asset indices; the Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission is expected to issue the first batch of official licenses to applicants for virtual asset trading platforms considered for licensing by the end of the year.
In terms of viewpoints and statements, Coinbase CEO: the next SEC chairman should withdraw all meaningless cases and apologize to the American people; Willy Woo: altcoins are a game for insiders, currently dominated by meme coins; Arthur Hayes: go Bitcoin, huge liquidity is on the way; Matrixport: Bitcoin demand surges due to Trump's election probability and ETF purchases; HashKey Livio: Hong Kong Web 3.0 has entered its second phase, from single points to a full ecosystem; Vitalik published a discussion on the future development of the Ethereum protocol 'The Purge', aiming to reduce storage requirements and the complexity of the Ethereum protocol.
In terms of institutions, large companies, and leading projects, major shareholders of Microsoft, BlackRock, and Vanguard will vote on their proposal 'to study buying BTC'; the Trump family crypto project WLFI plans to launch a stablecoin, and the team is developing the main project components; OKX announced Standard Chartered Bank as a third-party custodial partner; Magic Eden opened the testME airdrop claim; Grass airdrop claim is open; CAT721's first official NFT series has begun minting.
Data shows, Deribit CEO: The number of Bitcoin call options expiring on November 8 is twice that of put options; on October 30, TradingView data showed BTC's market share exceeded 60%; Tether's Q3 financial report: net profit of $2.5 billion, US Treasury holdings reached $105 billion, stablecoin circulation reached $120 billion;
In terms of security, the founder of Ordinals: version ord 0.21.2 has fixed a bug that could cause runes to be lost, recommending an upgrade as soon as possible; Truth Terminal's founder X was stolen in a series of incidents; ... well, another eventful week.
Attached (Weekly Editor's Picks) series transmission portal.
See you next time~
