The monthly line for BTC in October was officially closed at 8:00 this morning. October did not disappoint the reputation of 'uptober'. After breaking below 60,000 again at the beginning of October, it continued to rise. This time we saw a sustained upward trend.
On October 30, BTC surged during the night. As the market hoped to break above previous highs, BTC ended its rally just $130 below the previous high. After two days of narrow fluctuations at high levels, following the release of PCE data, market expectations of Trump successfully running for president declined, leading to a synchronized drop in BTC, U.S. stocks, and gold, with Trump's media company even hitting a circuit breaker limit.
Many investment bank analysts point out that BTC effectively breaking and stabilizing above 69,000 USD is proof of breaking away from an 8-month consolidation period and marks the beginning of a new trend. Whether this view is applicable now? Let's see how traders make their decisions.
Technical analysis faction
@WorldOfCharts 1
According to what I said, Bitcoin can test 60-70k (retesting) before another bullish rebound. I expect successful retesting can guide another wave of bullish momentum towards 80k.
@YSI_crypto
The reference period is 4H. Currently, it has temporarily stopped falling after dropping to the 68,950 area, but the next K candle has not yet confirmed a green close in the 68,950 support area. If this support level breaks, we will look directly to 66,150 and 65,170.
@laban_li believes that this is a resonance after the deep-sea crab has completed; this wave of decline is relatively sharp, and the downward trend has not yet stopped. Entering on the left side is quite risky; you can try with a loss, but it is still recommended to enter on the right side for more stability.
The previously predicted 75k was a prediction from two months ago; the recent peak of 73,500 is actually not far off and is likely a small peak in the recent period.
Data analysis faction
@CryptoPainter_X
All exchanges are selling, and the supply in the spot market is relatively firm and obvious. However, in the futures market, CME is selling throughout, while Binance and OKX have significantly reduced supply after the U.S. stock market closes and have begun to show some buying strength.
@wower_X
Large option traders continue to enter the market looking bullish. At 10 AM, 1,000 positions were bought for the March expiration at 85,000, costing about 98 BTC or 7.1 million USD.
At the price level of 85,000, starting from the price of 61,000 at the beginning of October, there have been three instances of significant bullish buying, totaling nearly 15 million USD spent on options, with 2,000 positions.
@0x CPT_Capital
Analyzing from the order book perspective, it is believed that buying pressure has emerged here, and the correction is basically over.
@Murphychen 888
From on-chain data analysis.
STH, short-term holder BTC.
LTH, long-term holder BTC.
On 10/29, STH sold 232,000 coins, and LTH sold 15,000 coins.
On 10/30, STH sold 251,000 coins, and LTH sold 18,000 coins.
On 10/31, STH sold 207,000 coins, and LTH sold 11,000 coins.
It can be seen that:
1. From October 28 to October 30, the main selling pressure came from 'short-term profit' positions, while on the 31st, the main selling pressure came from short-term 'locked positions.'
2. On the 29th and 30th, it is a process of accelerated distribution, including both LTH and STH. By the 31st, selling pressure begins to weaken.
3. These days, continue to observe whether the data shows sustained slowdown or accelerated distribution, which can serve as one of the short-term judgment criteria.
4. Currently, the average cost for STH is around 64,000. As long as this level is not broken, we consider the trend unchanged.
Macro analysis faction
@Maoshu_CN
In terms of geopolitics:
The main international geopolitical issues remain focused on Israel and Iran. Currently, Netanyahu has modified his son's wedding incident, and Iranian leader Khamenei is inspecting the border, with both sides preparing for an opportunity. This is a point to note; of course, I personally expect that there should not be any attack possibility before the U.S. election day.
Regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation, the U.S. publicly stated that due to North Korea sending troops to the battlefield, it is very likely that soldiers from a third country will support Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine war. This is a manifestation of the U.S. pressuring Russia.
On the North Korean and South Korean sides, North Korea tested an intercontinental missile in the East Sea, causing regional tensions. The United States publicly condemned this and was not notified before the test.
The Russia-Ukraine issue is a normalized problem, while North Korea-South Korea belongs to a stimulus event. The Israel-Iran situation is currently the 'unexpected' risk market that should be most concerning. Although many are optimistic that Trump can resolve these issues, the elections have not yet settled, and even after that, Trump's power transition will still need to wait until January next year.
Regarding stablecoins:
The market value of stablecoins in the market has increased by 300 million, reaching 177.3 billion. This includes some inflow of funds as well as some funds remaining after leaving the market.
USDT: Official data shows 120.573 billion, an increase of 0.69 billion compared to yesterday, with slight capital inflow.
USDC: Data website shows a market value increase of 2.05, along with a decrease in trading volume, indicating a possibility of capital inflow.
BTC has experienced a decrease in volume after the recent rise over the past two days, with reduced selling pressure and price stabilization. This may lead to a further breakout, which is a good sign.
Currently, although many people are shouting that the altcoin season is coming, the trading volume activity shows that both buyers and sellers are still active, with small volume reduction and insufficient optimism in sentiment.
The optimistic launch of altcoins still requires BTC to stabilize after reaching historical highs.
