The non-farm payroll data is coming out tonight. Since the sudden rise of 73,000, we have encountered a significant drop, attributed to negative sentiment or profit-taking. However, this is largely a result of the market's anticipation of the non-farm data! According to Wednesday's ADP, Friday's non-farm employment should maintain good growth, and last night's initial jobless claims also support this. The significant pullback before the data is essentially a reaction to the early digestion of the information!
Before the non-farm data, the overall market fluctuations should not be too large. If the bearish sentiment continues, an early morning drop will be crucial to see if the European market can sustain it. If the European market continues to decline, the American market will undoubtedly continue to crash. If it leans towards strength, there will be a rebound first. As of now, the momentum has not yet developed; if it holds above 68,500, the probability of a breakthrough remains low! Otherwise, we will leave it to the market to determine the non-farm outcome!
For October's non-farm employment data, the previous value was 254,000, while the expectation is only 113,000. The pessimistic employment forecast is less than half of last month, which is favorable for the cryptocurrency market, at least in terms of sentiment!
Regarding the operational approach, I believe we should not pursue short positions anymore. After a sharp drop at the market open this morning, there is a slow rebound in the afternoon. Although the magnitude is not large, there are no signs of a decline. The American market's October non-farm data is about to be released, and the volatility of the Asian and European markets has been relatively poor, so there is no necessity or condition to short!
In the past, sudden drops before the non-farm data have not continued. Although we cannot directly deduce that the same outcome will occur now, considering the characteristics of a rising bull market and the morning's trends, the cost-effectiveness of pursuing short positions is not high, and we are far from the previous bullish-bearish dividing point. Technically, there is a demand for a rebound correction! Therefore, today's non-farm data will focus on the rebound rhythm, with a strong support at 68,200 and a pressure point at 72,200! In terms of operation, we may look for a bullish rebound first! Meanwhile, both short-term and long-term strategies can be initiated at this stage!
Additionally, pay attention to tonight's non-farm data, where the market expectation is only 114,000. If the number exceeds expectations, it may be bearish for the cryptocurrency market!