Bitcoin quickly fell below $70,000.
The market confirms my vision from the 30th. This wave of decline has scared off many bulls, and Ethereum is leading the altcoins to take a break. Undoubtedly, the recent drop is a good opportunity for bottom fishing and increasing positions.
After rising so much, a slight pullback is normal. It has completed a large-scale 1:1 extension target.
Today, non-farm employment and unemployment rate are both being released with five-star ratings. Next week, the UK will cut interest rates, and the U.S. will lower interest rates. The election is finalized.
Non-farm employment and unemployment rate released.
Non-farm expectations are too far from last week's values; the Federal Reserve is creating chaos.
Bullish, BTC will still surge to around 72,000.
Bearish, BTC is expected to dip to 67-68.
The election is finalized on the 5th.
Harris elected causes BTC to correct.
Trump's election causes BTC to spike and then deeply correct.
On the 7th, the UK interest rate will be announced.
If nothing unexpected happens, interest rates will be cut by 25 basis points.
At 3 a.m. on the 8th, the Federal Reserve will announce the interest rate.
The biggest impact on BTC after the election is a set of data.
If interest rates are cut by 50 basis points, cryptocurrencies will overall experience a wave of upward movement.
Focus on ETH; if no interest rate cut, it may pull back.
A 25 basis point cut is considered an early digestion of positive news, followed by a pullback.
What’s the outlook going forward?
I rarely trade intra-day fluctuations of a few hundred points. Now that the coin price is so high, making 300 points is less than 0.5%. If you need someone to guide you to earn 1%, you might as well flip a coin.
Let's focus on the structure. The most worthwhile position to gamble on is, of course, near the structural breakdown point. If you can wait, then wait; if you can't, continue with short-term trading. Of course, you can also look at the intra-day structure.
From this market trend, how many people think that the trend yield is greater than intra-day yield? Please raise your hand. If you claim to be a friend of time, to follow trends and structures, yet still need to monitor trading daily, then how can you follow the trend and the structure?
If you haven't topped out and are stuck, just hold on and don't cut your losses. Consider shifting positions to follow-up hot sectors; when leading stocks come out, think about swapping. If you have topped out or still have positions, you can boldly buy in batches. A crash is an opportunity to pick up money.
Many people are deeply stuck with altcoins and want to bottom fish but have no positions left.
It hasn't stabilized above the previous high of 73,000 and has started to drop again! Is the market over?
This morning, another friend hurriedly came to ask: Did Bitcoin drop again?
The previous high is definitely a resistance level; it's not that easy to break through quickly.
Currently, short-term support is around 68,300. If this level doesn't break, there's no need to worry too much. If it breaks, then other altcoins will be in danger.
After all, the current position is awkward. Bitcoin is at a high, many altcoins have dropped by 70%-80%, and they may still drop further. This is the short-term risk.
However, overall, it is still the previous viewpoint. As long as interest rates do not quickly drop below 4%, it is still stable.
Looking back at BTC's data, there hasn't been much change. Indeed, some investors have exited due to losses from the price drop, but that's not the main part. The largest turnover still comes from short-term profit-taking investors, which is also within our expectations. As mentioned yesterday, a washout below $70,000 is not sufficient; washing more is not a bad thing.
The support from $64,000 to $69,000 is still very solid. I see no issues here. Early investors also have no intention to increase turnover, and the trend has not been broken; it is still worth looking forward to.
If there are open positions, how to enter next?
If there is to be a bull market in the crypto space, it must be led by the Nasdaq's wild bull market. Bitcoin may surge to 100,000 due to a thinner order book and more FOMO entry sentiment.
Subjectively, whether to bottom fish or do swings, I have already gotten used to missing out. A surge to 100,000 is just a 40% rise from the current price, while a surge from 15,000 to 75,000 is +400%. Even if I miss out, so what?
Once earning 9 points, doing it 4 times, the yield is also over 40%. Currently, I prefer this. The U.S. elections are the most likely place to go awry. If the Nasdaq is fortunate enough to pull back 20-40%, it will be an excellent entry time for the crypto circle.
The fear index still shows 'greed,' but clearly, since yesterday, panic sentiment has spread widely. This morning, everyone is panicking as they fear the market will crash again like on August 5th, and they fear altcoins will collapse again. I share my views to encourage my friends.
From the market structure, the massive drop in Bitcoin on August 5 marked the end of a phase, then Bitcoin entered a triangle consolidation, leading to a breakout above $70,000 in the last two days. Currently, Bitcoin has entered a new phase: accelerated rise. The half-year washout was for this stage of the market.
Before August 5, altcoins mainly focused on washing out, continuously being killed off. After August 5, altcoins entered a consolidation-accumulation phase. There are many buyers, and currently, Bitcoin is in a blood-sucking market. BTC's market share continues to rise, and after this blood-sucking market, Ethereum and altcoins will surge.
The above is the overall market rhythm, the main line.
