Is the current cryptocurrency market a bull market? When will the next cryptocurrency bull market be?
The cryptocurrency bull market is divided into three phases: early, mid, and late.
2023 is a typical early bull market, characterized by BTC daily prices standing above the MA200; one can look at history, as this event occurs every year before a halving.
2024 will be BTC's fourth halving, and with multiple positive factors such as the BTC spot ETF and interest rate cuts, the capital volume will see an exponential increase. At the same time, the coins on exchanges have been withdrawn to wallets by holders, so the market will remain in a state of currency scarcity for a long time. Therefore, it can be concluded that 2024 will be the main upward wave of this bull market, with a strong bullish trend likely to emerge.
In 2025, the market will begin to fluctuate; referring to 2021, the late bull market has risks that outweigh the rewards, and it will be a slow process of building a peak, with significant volatility.
To summarize, before the halving in 2024, BTC prices will be at relatively low levels. Also, do not envy those who bought at ten or twenty thousand because the risk level at that time is completely different from now. As Jesse Livermore said, he prefers to buy a stock when it breaks through its previous high because he can quickly earn 20 to 30 points of profit with almost no risk.
Of course, true holders do not care about short-term prices; can you believe that a large portion of BTC holders has an average cost of around 300, and it recently rose to 70,000, making a profit of over 230 times while remaining steady? The power of belief is limitless; if someone still thinks BTC is a scam, then this wealth transfer is not truly over.
However, after several bull markets in 2017 and 2021, each halving cycle sees Bitcoin rise significantly, often by dozens of times. With the positive factors of halving, interest rate cut expectations, and the ETF approval, why not be bullish?
What I am observing is not my own emotions but a pattern that has lasted for over a decade. If you get hit once and don't feel pain, after getting hit several times, don't you still feel pain?
Money comes from the wind, not from guessing based on feelings.
I am merely summarizing historical patterns. There are no personal emotions involved.
I want to say to friends in the market: cherish the present, cherish now; good times are few, but standing on the shoulders of giants in this era, this wave of wealth will be unforgettable for a lifetime.
