Written by: Blur
As the U.S. presidential election day approaches, the crypto digital asset industry is also on edge - regarding 'crypto assets,' it is not only a governance issue that clearly shows the differences between U.S. presidential candidate Trump and the soon-to-depart Biden administration, but also a focal point of ongoing controversy during this U.S. presidential election campaign.
Two opposing viewpoints
The final two candidates in this U.S. presidential election, Trump has a very clear view of the crypto digital asset industry and participated in the Bitcoin conference held in Nashville in July 2024, publicly expressing his 'support.' In contrast, the other presidential candidate Harris's position on the digital asset industry remains relatively vague, but compared to the current Biden administration's stance, it is relatively moderate.
Among the policy proposals Trump has made regarding digital assets during his campaign, the ones with significant public influence include:
Establish a national BTC reserve: Trump stated that his administration will 'retain all BTC currently held or acquired by the U.S. government' and will become 'the core of the national strategic BTC reserve.' It is reported that as of October 2023, the U.S. government holds over $5 billion in BTC, most of which comes from asset seizures in criminal cases.
Establish a Digital Asset Advisory Committee: Trump proposed the creation of an organization called the 'Bitcoin and Crypto Assets Presidential Advisory Committee,' whose rules would be written by those who love the industry, not those who despise it.
Prevent the Federal Reserve from creating a central bank digital currency: The development of central bank digital currencies by central banks around the world has become a trend, but the Federal Reserve has yet to decide whether to create a fully digital dollar. Trump publicly opposed this idea multiple times in 2024. In May 2024, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill prohibiting the Federal Reserve from creating a digital dollar, but whether the bill can ultimately pass through the lengthy legislative process remains to be seen.
Create a crypto platform World Liberty Financial: Aimed at promoting the widespread use of Stablecoins and decentralized finance. According to public reports, the project's early white paper mentioned the launch of a new digital asset called $WLFI, which is planned to be sold to the public.
However, three years ago, Trump held a skeptical attitude towards crypto assets and had criticized on social media that crypto assets facilitate illegal activities, but since August 2024, he has repositioned himself as a staunch supporter of crypto assets.
Harris previously served as Vice President of the current Biden administration. The current U.S. government adopts a strong regulatory stance towards the crypto digital asset industry.
So far, Harris has not made many statements regarding the crypto digital asset industry. On September 22, 2024, at a fundraising event in New York City, Harris mentioned for the first time a plan to 'encourage innovative technologies such as artificial intelligence and digital assets.'
At the same time, media reports indicate that Harris mentioned during an event in Manhattan that she might take a more open stance on the crypto digital asset industry than the current government. However, Harris has yet to propose specific policy plans.
Additionally, considering the need to attract potential voters in the campaign, the Democratic Party leaders behind Harris are working to improve relationships with the crypto digital asset industry. A digital asset advocacy organization called Crypto4Harris held a virtual town hall meeting that brought together several Democratic Party members.
Actions in the crypto market
According to media reports citing data, companies in the crypto digital asset industry, such as Coinbase and Ripple, have become dominant corporate donors in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with donations accounting for 48% of all corporate political contributions in 2024, close to half.
According to data from the non-profit organization OpenSecrets tracking campaign spending, as of August 2024, the crypto digital asset industry has spent $119 million participating in political donations, surpassing the political donation amounts from all other industries.
In this U.S. presidential election, the crypto digital asset industry has already sensed the opportunity, hoping to elect officials who uphold a supportive attitude towards the crypto digital asset industry.
It is reported that since 2010, companies in the crypto digital asset industry have actively participated in political elections, with the depth, breadth, and scale of donations second only to fossil fuel companies, making it the second largest industry actively participating in U.S. political elections.
The report 'Election 2024 The Role of Crypto' released by Ethereum spot ETF issuer Grayscale recently disclosed survey data that indirectly reflects some market conditions in the U.S. digital asset industry:
Among surveyed U.S. voters, 53% have some understanding of crypto assets. This percentage has increased compared to the 2023 survey.
Regulation can still play an important role in enhancing investor confidence in crypto assets — 80% of surveyed U.S. voters believe regulators can play a role in managing emerging technologies, while 20% of respondents indicated they would be more likely to hold crypto assets if there were clearer regulations or policies on digital assets.
40% of surveyed U.S. voters indicated that compared to previous elections, they are more concerned about presidential candidates' positions on BTC or other crypto assets in this election.
Two-thirds of surveyed U.S. voters stated that they would consider a presidential candidate's position on digital assets before voting. Among them, 56% of respondents said they would be more likely to vote for candidates who maintain a learning and understanding attitude towards digital assets rather than those who are indifferent.
Opposing voices
The social event prediction betting site Polymarket shows that in early October 2024, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris's approval ratings reached a tie, close to 50%, but starting in late October 2024, Trump's approval rating suddenly surged, reaching 65.5% by October 31, 2024, quickly becoming the focus of election discussions.
Experts responsible for researching elections have publicly stated that this situation may stem from the enthusiasm of a small number of crypto digital asset industry speculators trying to rally support for Trump.
Although the influence of the crypto digital asset industry in political games seems to be increasing, the opposing voices against crypto digital assets in the U.S. have never ceased.
Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, stated in a media interview that the crypto digital asset industry is 'filled with fraudsters and speculators.' He pointed out: 'Crypto assets are just a small part of the U.S. and global capital markets, but they could undermine ordinary investors' trust in the capital markets... Global investors have lost too much money because companies in the crypto digital asset industry have not followed regulatory requirements.'
Current crypto friendliness does not mean crypto friendliness in 5 years
Driven by over a hundred million dollars in election funding, crypto digital assets have become an important factor in the 2024 U.S. election, influencing not only presidential candidates but also a large number of voters.
Trump attracts supporters of crypto digital assets through public and active commitments, while Harris and the Democratic Party are striving to catch up, unwilling to give up the substantial electoral cash flow that can be gained by supporting this industry. Meanwhile, supporters in the crypto digital asset field are attempting to exchange support for elections in return for more favorable regulatory policies for the future development of the industry.
However, amid the clamor, the blog post by Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin remains worth revisiting, in which he expressed the following views on the relationship between crypto digital assets and politics:
If you see a politician being friendly towards crypto assets, one thing you can do is check their views on crypto assets themselves from five years ago.
At the same time, you can also look up their views on crypto-related topics from five years ago. In particular, try to find topics where 'supporting freedom' and 'supporting corporations' are inconsistent.
If a politician supports crypto assets, the key question to ask is: Is their reasoning correct? Do they share a vision with you regarding the technological, political, and economic developments of the 21st century? Do they have a more long-term positive vision beyond immediate concerns like 'defeating other bad tribes'?
If so, that's great: you should support them and clearly state that this is the reason you support them. If not, then either completely stay out of it or seek better allies.
At the same time, Vitalik Buterin explicitly opposes the trend of choosing political loyalty based on who 'supports crypto' and believes that this decision-making approach carries high risks and may violate the original intentions and values that led you into the crypto asset field.
With the U.S. presidential election day on November 5, 2024 approaching, the battle between the two-party presidential candidates is becoming increasingly intense. Regarding the future of crypto digital assets, as Vitalik Buterin has consistently expressed: The future of digital assets should be closely related to a future of 'decentralization.' 'Crypto' is not just about digital assets and blockchain — what we need is not just support for 'crypto,' but also support for deeper goals.
