Will those who haven't sold at a profit come crashing down? Will the retail investors miss out on a big bull market?
The dynamics of the financial market are diverse, with spot gold reaching an all-time high, while Bitcoin has entered a correction period after hitting a new peak.
The three major U.S. stock indices—the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq—all experienced declines, with decreases of 0.33%, 0.22%, and 0.56% respectively.
Macroeconomic data presents a complex situation: the U.S. GDP growth rate for the third quarter was below expectations, slowing to 2.8%, but the labor market outperformed expectations, providing support for the economic fundamentals.
Market expectations for a 25 basis point interest rate cut at the November FOMC meeting remain unchanged, but investors are maintaining a cautious stance ahead of key data releases.
Although Bitcoin has recently retreated, considering the derivatives market, on-chain data, and the macroeconomic environment, its long-term upward trend remains solid.
Despite Bitcoin about to set new highs, retail participation is extremely low, raising discussions about whether the absence of retail enthusiasm can usher in a major bull market. Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around $72,000; although there is a short-term pullback, market indicators still suggest its potential to break through $73,000.
The Bitcoin futures market shows strong bullish sentiment, with futures premium rates hitting new highs. At the same time, Bitcoin's price movements are closely related to gold, but both have experienced pullbacks due to U.S. economic data.
On-chain data indicates that although there was a wave of profit-taking when Bitcoin surpassed $70,000, subsequent net capital outflows dominated. The premium rate in the stablecoin market is in a neutral range, indicating strong market resilience.
Low retail participation may indicate that Bitcoin still has room for growth. If Bitcoin's weekly closing price breaks key levels, it will confirm a bullish breakout. Additionally, the Short-Term Holder's Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) index shows that although short-term investors have returned to profitability, it has not yet become 'overheated,' indicating further upward potential.
The strong inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs, the monetary easing cycle of major economies, and crypto-friendly political factors may all serve as catalysts for Bitcoin's rise.
