BTC is still performing strongly on a smaller scale, and even after a downward pullback, it can recover, indicating that the bulls remain strong. Once this consolidation ends, it is very likely to continue rising, and once it rises again, it will need to break through the historical high.
Additionally, the daily chart's ascending flag pattern has broken out, and it's only a few hundred points away from the historical high. Once it breaks through, the space will open up again. In summary: high-level fluctuations, BTC is currently in a wait-and-see mode, while ETH has a golden cross on the daily chart, slowly setting up for long positions. A correction to 71200-70000 is possible.
Although BTC is expected to rise, how much of a correction will it have?
In the cryptocurrency market, whale and ETF large capital costs are at 55000, while the current price has reached 72000, meaning they are currently profiting up to 30%. Looking back over the past decade, the S&P 500 index has averaged annual gains of over 12%.
However, if the price of BTC rises to 82000, their profits will exceed 50%, which is equivalent to gaining more than five times the increase of the stock market index in just one year in the BTC market. Such enticing profit margins suggest that when it reaches that level, they may start to take profits. Therefore, if the price of BTC continues to rise and approaches 82000, it may usher in a significant correction.
From the current on-chain data, although BTC is still flowing out, funds are continuously flowing in, so the short-term risk is relatively low.
Last night's non-farm payroll data recorded an increase of 233,000, the largest increase since July 2023. A slight negative impact, as strong employment affects the Fed's interest rate cuts.
PCE will be announced tonight at 8:30, and non-farm payroll data will be released tomorrow night at 8:30. If the non-farm data for today and tomorrow does not cause significant negative impacts, BTC may break through 74000 after gathering strength.
Can altcoins still explode?
Currently, the overall market cap proportion of altcoins has reached a historical extreme range in recent years, repeatedly hitting new lows. It can be said that it has been compressed to the extreme, making it a good time to invest in projects that have narrative, value, and financing.
From on-chain data, the inflow of exchange stablecoins has been ongoing from October 24 to 30, indicating that more bottom-fishing funds are entering, but it still hasn't broken through the previous highs of the last two months.
Many people say that bottom-fishing funds are increasing, but why is the money in my wallet getting less?
The real reason is that these bottom-fishing funds have flowed into BTC and have not spilled over into altcoins.
So, for altcoins to explode, at least BTC must break through new highs, while ETH effectively stands above 2820 USD. Market sentiment will rise, and retail investors will prefer lower-priced tokens, at which point altcoins might迎来一波爆发.
It's difficult for this round of altcoins to see many hundred or thousand times returns like the previous round. Currently, Bitcoin's ETF is attracting a lot of capital, and it's not unreasonable to say it’s a bull market for BTC.
Previously, it was advised to switch from holding ETH to BTC, and those holding BTC should continue to hold it. If the election brings positive news and drives prices up, it might be wise to take some profits gradually.
Buyable targets:
People: A few days ago, there was a washout, and those with VIP access bought in batches, resulting in profits yesterday.
18%. It has currently reached a support level, and those who haven't bought can consider doing so in batches.
BTC: Refer to the previous analysis.
UNI: The public chain will launch later this year, and node operators will need to stake UNI, which will be used as gas for the public chain.
BNB: A high point brought a 13% gain, and now that it has dropped, it can continue to be bought in batches, target: $650.
CHR, long-term target $1, various ecosystems are currently developing, focusing on gaming public chains, benchmarking against IMX.
FTM, the project team is strong, targeting $0.9.
ACH: A public chain is about to be launched, still a leader in the payment sector, with a low market cap.
DOT: 2.0 is about to launch, and an independent public chain will also be introduced.
STX: The mainnet upgrade is complete, with a long-term target of 3.
Klay and Astr, national chains of South Korea and Japan.
