Cloud invoice falls into a repeated winning storm!
The Ministry of Finance launched the 'Cloud Tree Planting Fun e Point Collection Tree' event this year, encouraging the public to use cloud invoices to participate in the lottery, attracting nearly 90,000 participants, with a variety of grand prizes prepared, ranging from iPhone 15 Pro, iPad Pro, to cash prizes of 100,000 TWD.
However, when the results of the two waves of draws in August and October were announced, sharp-eyed netizens immediately discovered that four participants had won multiple times in different periods. Once the news broke, netizens immediately questioned the fairness of the lottery, and even the million-follower influencer Cheap couldn't help but ask AI to calculate, resulting in a shocking outcome.
Four people won multiple times, the National Tax Bureau responded: everything is legal.
According to netizens' revelations on the PTT forum, the 'Cloud Tree Planting Fun e Point Collection Tree' event started in June, divided into three lottery draws. However, in these three draws, four participants won multiple times in different periods, with even the same person winning big prizes twice.
Wang Hongwei shared a comparison chart on Facebook, showing that a citizen with the surname Chen won the iPhone 15 Pro in both the first and third draws, while a citizen with the surname Gao won the iPad Pro in both the second and third draws; others, including citizens with the surnames Wu and Liang, also won repeatedly.
Image source: Facebook Wang Hongwei's post
In response to external doubts, the Taipei National Tax Bureau stated on the 29th that 'the lottery process is completely legal,' explaining that the event attracted 90,000 registrations, and each person could participate in different periods repeatedly, with the total number of lottery entries reaching 120,000 to 136,000. Unawarded entries from one period can be carried over to the next, so if one continues to participate, it is naturally possible to win multiple times in different periods. They emphasized that lawyers were present to witness, ensuring transparency.
AI calculates 'astronomical level' probability
However, the tax bureau's response clearly does not hold up. The influencer Cheap, who has millions of followers, specifically asked two AI models—Claude and ChatGPT—the question: 'With 90,000 people participating in the lottery, and a total of three chances to win, with 5 winning slots in the first two draws and 9 in the last, what is the probability that the same 4 people win 2 times or more?'
As a result, the probability calculated by Claude reached an astonishing 1/25,602,045,019,537,024,000,000,000,000,000,000; even if a draw were held every second continuously, it would be difficult to see this situation occur even over hundreds of billions of years.
ChatGPT's response was similar, describing the probability of occurrence as 'close to zero' and likening it to winning the Taiwan Lotto jackpot ten times in a row or the same person being hit by a meteor 2 to 3 times.
The questioning of Cheap immediately resonated with netizens, who left comments sarcastically saying, 'No illegal activities found, thank you for your advice,' and 'Clearly could have just stolen it, but still held a lottery,' with one netizen jokingly calling it 'a national-level prize'.
As AI and big data technology gradually enter people's lives, the previously unattainable 'astronomical probability' for lotteries and draws can now be easily calculated through AI, leading to a lower tolerance among the public for randomness than in the past.
Events like multiple people winning repeatedly with such 'astronomical probabilities' seem even more unbelievable after AI calculates the data. As Cheap's doubts escalated, the Taipei National Tax Bureau released a press release explaining that the winning list of public concern was a result of actively donating cloud invoices, increasing the chances of winning by redeeming points. They are currently investigating the claims of unfairness regarding the four citizens who won repeatedly and will provide timely explanations once results are available.
