While some analysts believe that the increase in open interest on the CME and the difference between ETF inflows indicate a rise in Bitcoin, others believe that these movements are more likely due to arbitrage strategies.
Bitcoin futures contracts offered on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) increased by 9% in the past 24 hours, reaching 171,700 BTC, equivalent to $12.22 billion. According to Coinglass data, the funding rate in the perpetual futures market increased by 15% in the past 24 hours, reflecting a strong trend towards long positions. In addition, large capital inflows from spot ETFs listed in the US also supported the rise.
Analyst Checkmate noted the divergence between CME open interest and ETF inflows. Checkmate noted that increasing inflows to ETFs indicate a more multifaceted bullish strategy, and emphasized that open interest on CME has not increased at the same pace.
Checkmate noted that ETFs are shifting away from cash-and-carry transactions, with institutional players, particularly Emory University, purchasing the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust, making more long-term, directional purchases. He said the move could signal a shift in market expectations, given that institutions such as universities typically prefer long-term investments over “basis trades.”
On the other hand, Bitwise Research President Andre Dragosch looks at the market from a different perspective. According to Dragosch, the recent increases in open positions and net short positions on CME indicate that the “cash-and-carry” strategy is reviving. Drawing attention to the fact that short positions on CME have increased especially since the beginning of September, Dragosch stated that this situation shows that investors have started to do more arbitrage to benefit from Bitcoin’s price differences.
But Dragosch added that the CFTC’s data is available through Oct. 22 and the most recent changes have yet to be seen. That uncertainty raises the need for more data on what direction the futures market rally will take.
Stay tuned for new information.
