#你问我答
What should we do after the election?
Typically, the three months following an election are a critical period.
If the economic situation is good three months later and the Federal Reserve continues to implement a loose monetary policy, risk markets may perform even better.
However, if the U.S. economy shows signs of recession, it’s likely that we will see a "final drop" after the election. The key remains whether the economy will fall into recession.
Judging from the current trend, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle generally lasts about 16 to 18 months. This means that the third and fourth quarters of 2026 are very likely to enter a low-interest-rate cycle.
During this period, if the U.S. economy goes into recession, it cannot be ruled out that the Federal Reserve will use quantitative easing (QE) measures to stimulate economic recovery, which will be a real liquidity injection. Additionally, balance sheet expansion will also greatly contribute to increasing liquidity.
But if the U.S. economy does not go into recession, but instead achieves a soft landing or no landing, then quantitative easing (QE) may not occur, although the probability of balance sheet expansion still exists.
More importantly, November 2026 will see the midterm elections. Like the general election, the midterm elections have a strong impact on risk markets. Especially this midterm election is likely to mark a shift in U.S. monetary policy from tightening to easing.
Both from a political situation perspective and a liquidity perspective, this is very different from 2022 to 2024, and it is very likely to signal the start of a new bull market cycle.
If you want to seize this bull market, it’s too late to learn on the spot; it’s best if someone can quickly guide you.
I am David, welcome to communicate!
