Based on the history of Bitcoin's Halving cycles, there is a clear pattern regarding peak price timing. Specifically, in the 2015-2017 cycle, Bitcoin peaked approximately 518 days after the Halving event, and in the 2019-2021 cycle, the peak price occurred 546 days after Halving. Therefore, if history repeats and market factors maintain their trends, Bitcoin may reach the next peak of the current cycle between mid-September and mid-October 2025.
1. Calculating the peak timing
Bitcoin's fourth Halving will occur in April 2024.
If we count from this point and add around 518-546 days, we will arrive at September to October 2025 for a potential market peak.
2. The significance of the consolidation period after Halving
Currently, Bitcoin has just passed about 35 days after Halving. This period is often viewed as a crucial accumulation and consolidation time, when the price starts to establish a stable foundation before strong growth. Contributing factors to this consolidation may include:
Accumulation by large investors (whales): Large investors may take advantage of this time to accumulate Bitcoin at attractive prices before a strong growth cycle begins.
Market response to reduced supply: Halving reduces the supply of new Bitcoin, often causing the value of Bitcoin to increase when demand remains unchanged or increases. However, this response is usually not immediate and takes time to manifest in the market.
Adjustment of macroeconomic factors: During the accumulation period, Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market are also influenced by macro factors such as monetary policy, interest rates, and global investment trends. When these factors are favorable, they support the next growth trend.
3. Synchronizing the Halving cycle with the market cycle
The longer the accumulation and consolidation process after Halving, the more time the market has to adjust and synchronize with previous Halving cycles. This also indicates that the current cycle of Bitcoin may be built on a more sustainable foundation, minimizing risks from rapid and unstable growth. If Bitcoin's price continues to consolidate and accumulate at higher levels through various stages of the cycle, then the likelihood of reaching a peak around mid-September to mid-October 2025 will be higher, while also creating a strong growth wave, similar to previous cycles.
4. Conclusion
Based on Halving cycle analysis, it can be expected that:
A strong growth phase is likely to occur after the accumulation period reaches a certain level.
The next peak of Bitcoin may fall around mid-September to mid-October 2025, provided that historical patterns continue to repeat.
A long consolidation period after Halving is a good signal for the long-term cycle, helping to synchronize the current cycle with previous Halving cycles and minimize the risk of strong volatility.
👉 This means that investors can prepare for a longer and more stable growth cycle if the consolidation phase after Halving proceeds as history has indicated.
