With only two weeks left until the U.S. presidential election, The Economist's latest forecast has made a dramatic reversal, suggesting that Trump has a 54% chance of victory, potentially defeating Harris with 276 electoral votes to her 262, thus becoming president of the United States once again.
This is the first time since August that The Economist has predicted Trump’s election. The forecasting model takes into account recent polling results, the economic conditions of various U.S. states, demographic characteristics, and past election results for simulation. In the seven key swing states, Trump is expected to win five states: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, while Harris is narrowly leading in Michigan and Nevada. Out of the 538 electoral votes nationwide, The Economist estimates Trump will secure 276 votes to defeat Harris. Among them, Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, is crucial; if Harris loses to Trump in Pennsylvania, her chances of winning the election drop to only 13%; if Trump loses Pennsylvania, his chances fall to just 10%.