Short-term speculation is ten thousand times more fun than investing.

I remember when the inscription craze was going on, I went on Twitter to look for all kinds of products that could be minted, including inscriptions and NFTs. You could make a lot of money just by paying a little gas fee.

There are projects with returns of dozens, hundreds, and even thousands of times. The two that impressed me the most are OrdiRocks, which cost 5U to mint and later increased to 500U per piece; and the inscriptions on NEAR, which have returned 2,000 times.

Including the airdrops of uni, op, arb, and Xpet games in the past, if the wallets had not been robbed by hackers, they would have made a lot of money, including PEPE and ORDI as well.

But these things are not the same as investment. The purpose of making money through speculation is not pure, but just for fun and to enjoy the thrill of gambling with others. Of course, you are happy to make money, but you must be able to afford the loss. In essence, this is not much different from going to Macau to gamble.

Especially like the current MEME, it is more like a hunting game. Everyone is in the market and is the prey of each other. If you are not careful, you will be killed. It is very exciting. But correspondingly, the reason for speculation is very related to the views of other people in the market, so you have to adjust your strategy in a short period of time. Brilliant people like Soros can also make money, but it is very tiring and not easy to learn.

Since last month, I have also been playing a lot of MEME. I have made a lot of money and lost a lot of money. In theory, I can do more in-depth research and get a higher multiple. For example, I can make a crawler to monitor the flow of some smart money addresses, or use AI to buy and sell faster.

But I think it takes too much energy, and it seems that I can't earn as much as I would if I invested in Bitcoin and Ethereum. My Bitcoin cost more than 6K, and Ethereum is about 0.2K. If I play MEME, I must be able to afford the loss, so I must have a light position. If I invest 100U and earn 100 times, that is, 10,000U, how can it be compared to 10 times of the full position? BTC and ETH will have higher growth in the future?

Long-term investment is another thing. It requires in-depth research on the industry, sufficient patience, and a certain amount of capital. Duan Yongping said that this is a stupid battle. You really have to consider "value" and find something that you can find in your own perception that can grow over the long term and continue to grow, and then buy it when you think the price is low.

There are many things to think about, but the operation is very boring. You don’t even have to worry about it most of the time. Compared with speculation, investing is a calming thing because you don’t have to PVP with others or pay attention to a lot of noise in the market. If you have money and find that BTC has fallen a lot, just buy some. It's that simple.

Therefore, the big holders of Bitcoin are actually not willing to play MEME, because it is already very peaceful and they don’t want to do something thankless. Participating in MEME is nothing more than a gamble to make some capital with a small risk for a big gain.

Again, it is not wrong to take a gamble, but do not treat gambling as investment, and do not have some unreasonable dreams. For example, there are more than a thousand AIMEMEs launched from pump.fun, and only three have run out. Goat has 700 million, and the remaining Dragon II and Dragon III have tens of millions.

To expand a little, there are millions of memes so far. After three rounds of bull market, only one or two super memes appeared in each round. So I would like to ask, those who have never played PVP with others in the past and have fallen to the point of having to catch the next PEPE to make a fortune, why do you think that what you bought is a super meme?

Once you have this dream, you will PUA yourself, find all kinds of reasons to add value to the local dog, regard it as a "value investment", and hold it for a long time until it increases ten thousand times. In this way, even if you play with money you can afford to lose, from the perspective of probability, multiplied by the quantity, you can't afford to lose this money.

You have to abide by the rules of the casino. You have to play with money that you can afford to lose. If you lose, forget it. If you make money, you have to pay out your principal and use the profits to play. This way you can play for a long time. You might even get lucky and win a big jackpot. At this time, you can just leave the market.

But this is also quite difficult. If you invest in Bitcoin and become one of the 20% of them, you can make a lot of money. Then if you go to a casino, you have to become one of the 0.1% to make money. This is not a difficulty coefficient, and there is no methodology.

If you play MEME now, you will see many people seriously analyzing this logic or that truth, and they say it is very valuable, but it is pure pseudo-logic. To put it bluntly, if you really make money with that logic, you would have become financially independent if you had the time to post on Twitter, so why would you have the time to talk nonsense?

For example, when I could make money by writing inscriptions, I didn't want to talk about it at all. I had enough time to write inscriptions by posting on Twitter. But I have to be responsible for doing paid reach, so I will talk about what I found in paid reach. Isn't this the same with MEME?

There are some real experiences that cannot be explained. In short-term gaming, the fewer people who know the strategy, the easier it is to make money. Investment is just the opposite. You have to make a big show to let everyone know that it is valuable.

In the end, it was simplified to "buy Bitcoin", which usually makes people feel that it is a very low-tech thing, so people will not actually buy it.

We talked a lot. In short, MEME is very popular now, and there is indeed an opportunity to make money, just like when there are more people in the casino, the money of fools will increase, and you can make money. But there are still a few points to keep in mind:

1. You are not necessarily a smart person, and you may not win in PVP, so you should play with money you can afford to lose, and your main goal should be to seek excitement rather than to make money. Of course, if you have sufficient PVP ability, just ignore what I said because you have already made a lot of money.

2. The money you earn in a casino is luck, not your ability. Don’t summarize your successful experience, otherwise you will find that this experience will make you lose money at the next table.

3. When you lose the money you use for gambling, forget it and don’t think about making it back. On the contrary, when you make money, you should learn to pay out the principal and let the profits continue to play. This way you can play for a long time and the probability of hitting big cards will increase.

4. You must have something that can make money in the long run, it can be a job, it can be a Bitcoin account with fixed investment, profits and losses come from the same source, if you hang out in the casino for a long time, even if you win 90% of the time, you will die in the end. Long-term Capital Management LTCM is a good example. They are the smartest people in the world, and some are Nobel Prize winners, but what was their final fate?

5. If you want to play, play by yourself, don’t join too many groups. You can learn investment, but you can’t learn speculation at all.

That’s all I have to say. Remember, speculation is ten thousand times more fun than investing, but in the end, it is definitely investing that makes you happy.