The Bank of Japan will hold a policy meeting on 10/30-10/31. Will there be a rate hike this time?

The last time Japan raised rates, the global market plummeted. Will there be a rate hike this time?

The following is an excerpt from a report by Fortune Network.

The IMF, in its October World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, estimates that due to supply disruptions in the automotive industry and the diminishing one-time boost from a surge in tourism, Japan's economic growth rate will slow from 1.7% in 2023 to 0.3%, a significant downward revision of 0.4 percentage points from the 0.7% estimated in July. "With the strengthening of real wage growth, private consumption will drive economic growth, and the economy may grow by 1.1% in 2025."

The IMF's valuation assumption is based on the Bank of Japan maintaining a stable monetary policy path. "It is expected that the policy rate will continue to gradually rise towards a neutral level of around 1.5% in the medium term."

Due to stable wage growth supporting consumer spending, Japan's second quarter GDP annualized rate was 2.9%, although weak demand from China and slowing economic growth in the United States cast a shadow over the outlook for this export-dependent country.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that if the economic and price developments align with its estimates, the central bank is prepared to raise rates further.

In the quarterly estimate released by the Bank of Japan in July, it projected that Japan's economy would grow by 0.6% in the fiscal year 2024, accelerating to 1.0% in the fiscal year 2025. The central bank will hold its next policy meeting on October 30-31, during which it will update its estimates.