Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)
Recently, the Meme trading platform Moonshot has gained fame and has been 'praised' by multiple posts on X platform as the 'small Binance on-chain,' claiming to solve the 'last mile' problem for Meme tokens and demonstrating a strong listing effect. (Note: The author reviewed 9 articles introducing Moonshot and found that 6 of them contained recommended links, showing a clear promotional bias.)
So does Moonshot indeed have a significant listing effect? If so, is it short-term or long-lasting? Odaily will conduct a data review in this article.
Basic situation description
Statistical subjects: This article has counted 13 tokens that went live on Moonshot in the past ten days, excluding other tokens that crossed chains to Moonshot, such as NPC and STONKS.
Statistical time: Using the listing time provided by the 'Moonshot Listings' account as a benchmark, the prices of tokens after 5 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, 24 hours, and current (October 22, Beijing time 11:00) are counted.
Special circumstances: Due to the inability to obtain the exact second of the announcement, the starting price is taken as the opening price of the 1-minute candlestick, while prices such as 5 minutes after listing are taken as the closing price of the 1-minute candlestick.
Review of the listing effect
Price statistics for each time period are shown below:
It is evident that there is a significant 'listing effect' in the 5 minutes following the announcement, with the average growth in the 5 minutes after the announcement being 14.7%, and the longer the time extends, the more pronounced the differentiation becomes.
Additionally, if GOAT is excluded, the average growth from 5 minutes to 24 hours is actually continuously increasing, but the cumulative growth since the listing has seen a cliff-like decline.
Short-term listing effects are evident
The growth of each token on Moonshot after five minutes of listing is shown in the figure below, arranged from left to right in the order of listing. It can be seen that, except for XD, all others had positive growth after the announcement.
Upon reviewing the candlestick, the author found the possibility of an 'announcement robot' automatically buying based on Moonshot announcements, especially for several small-cap tokens, where the 1-minute growth is more significant compared to the 5-minute growth.
The 1-hour growth chart shown below indicates that most tokens maintain positive growth within 1 hour after the announcement, but differentiation begins to appear, with several tokens' growth starting to approach the zero axis.
No listing effect in the mid-term
The figure below is the 4-hour growth chart, where half of the tokens have erased their growth and continued to decline. However, Magnet, GOAT, and GNON, which were originally leading tokens in their respective phases, cannot be qualitatively determined as the fundamental reason for Moonshot's rise just because their growth continues to increase.
The 24-hour growth chart is shown below, with slop and Shoggoth included due to insufficient listing time of 4 hours. It is evident that the growth of tokens is increasingly differentiated, and it can basically be concluded that whether a token is listed on Moonshot or not has no direct relationship with its mid-term growth.
In the long term, it will ultimately return to zero
The figure below shows the cumulative growth of each token from the time of the announcement to the present. GOAT is not included in this chart due to excessive growth. It can be seen that most tokens are trending towards zero, primarily because the tokens listed on Moonshot are all Meme tokens, making it difficult to attract long-term attention and establish core consensus in the current environment of token proliferation, leading to inevitable decline.
In summary, listings on Moonshot can often only serve as a short-term reference indicator; whether a token can continue to rise in the short to mid-term is unrelated to this.
Additionally, upon review, it can be found that listings on Moonshot only occur during the evening and early morning hours Beijing time, with listings often focusing on popular tokens around a market cap of ten million. Readers focusing on trading during this time can pay particular attention to short-term opportunities.
