1. Trump’s Election Controversy Debunked
There’s been a circulating rumor that Trump has an unusual affinity for consuming puppies, which allegedly hurt his election prospects. This baseless claim has been thoroughly debunked, but the damage to his campaign’s image has already been done.
2. Putin and Modi’s Lighthearted Moment at BRICS
At the BRICS summit, Russian President Putin and Indian Prime Minister Modi shared a candid moment. Putin joked, "I thought our relationship was so strong that you’d understand me without a translator!" Modi burst into laughter, highlighting that, even at the highest levels, global cooperation often rests on mutual interests.
3. Israeli Airstrikes Hit Beirut Residential Areas
Israeli forces have once again launched airstrikes, this time targeting a residential building in the key area of Tayouneh, Beirut. The site is near well-known landmarks like Hosh Beirut and the Beirut Arena, escalating tensions in the region.
4. Divided U.S. Political Sentiment: A Dilemma
Many Republicans have expressed dissatisfaction with Trump but are equally critical of Kamala Harris’s economic policies. The undecided electorate is now at a crossroads—whom will they support in the upcoming election?
5. Cautious Consumers Impact Double 11 Sales
Despite massive discounts and promotions, sales for China’s Double 11 shopping festival have stalled. Economic challenges, job insecurity, and consumer fatigue are taking their toll, and both analysts and merchants are predicting a plateau in future growth.
6. Taiwan’s Wartime Food Strategy Unveiled
With mounting military pressure from China, Taiwan has disclosed its wartime food strategy. The island is now conducting monthly audits of essential supplies like rice and has set up rationing stations across the country to ensure readiness in the event of a crisis.
7. Calls for Massive Bonds to Stabilize the Market
Analysts are urging the Qing Dynasty to issue special government bonds worth 3 trillion yuan to establish a market stabilization fund. However, the IMF’s Gulen Chas has criticized recent central bank measures as inadequate to significantly bolster economic growth. He’s waiting for more concrete fiscal stimulus from China.
8. Swing State Voters Prioritize Economic Concerns
A recent Bloomberg poll indicates that 45% of swing state voters rank the economy as their top concern, overshadowing the importance of who becomes president. This highlights the growing anxiety surrounding financial stability in the U.S.
9. Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut Projections
Since the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, 10-year Treasury yields have surged by 70 basis points in just over a month, crossing the 4.25% mark. Meanwhile, mortgage rates have skyrocketed, with 30-year rates climbing from 6.3% to 7.0% within weeks.
Despite the Fed’s predictions, strong employment data has contradicted their rationale. The U.S. added 265,000 jobs in September, exceeding expectations and dropping the unemployment rate. This rise in inflation, combined with a hot labor market, makes a 50-basis point rate cut this year highly improbable. November will be crucial with upcoming elections, Federal Reserve meetings, and key labor and inflation data.
The Fed’s primary objective for 2025 is to avoid the dreaded stagflation, a toxic mix of rising inflation and unemployment that crippled the U.S. economy in the 1970s. Instead, they aim for a gradual reduction in rates.
10. Commodities and Bond Market Volatility Set to Spill into U.S. Equities
As volatility grips the commodity and bond markets, experts predict that U.S. stocks will soon experience a similar shift. Goldman Sachs forecasts an annualized return of just 3.5% for the S&P 500 over the next decade. When adjusted for inflation, that number could fall as low as 1.2%.
11. IMF Adjusts Growth Forecasts: U.S. Up, China and Germany Down
The IMF has increased its growth forecast for the U.S. while lowering projections for China and Germany. However, Bloomberg data shows that September saw a surge in capital inflows to China despite these downgrades.
12. Global Stock Sell-off Signals Rising
According to U.S. banking strategist Michael Hartnett, global investors’ cash levels dipped to 3.7% in October, triggering sell signals for equities. Despite this, U.S. corporate insiders have been aggressively selling shares. While the market narrative may remain optimistic, top executives are quietly cashing out, with insider selling hitting its highest levels since 2021.
13. Paul Tudor Jones: Betting on Inflation, Gold, and Bitcoin
Billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones has completely abandoned fixed-income assets, betting instead on inflation. He’s going long on gold and Bitcoin but cautions that Bitcoin has a long road ahead before it realizes its full potential.
14. Bitcoin’s On-Chain Metrics Signal Strength
Bitcoin’s circulating supply profit ratio has soared to 97%, indicating that nearly all holders are currently in profit. Resistance lies in the $67K–$72K range, with around 1.8 million BTC held. Surpassing this zone could face little resistance except for minor pullbacks.
On-chain indicators like the MVRV show that, since March, potential profits have doubled, but the supply remains insufficient to trigger mass profit-taking. The SOPR suggests some seasoned investors are already locking in gains. The SOPR trend is expected to fully reset by mid-2024, paving the way for bullish momentum next spring and a balanced market by summer. By autumn, the next cycle of expansion could be well underway.
This evening’s summary covers everything from global political dynamics to market volatility, with critical insights for both traders and investors.
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