With the official announcement, Binance will end Scroll (SCR) pre-market trading at 17:00 on October 21, 2024 (UTC+8) and will open the following spot trading pairs at 16:00 on October 22, 2024 (UTC+8):

·Spot Trading Pairs: SCR/BTC, SCR/USDT, SCR/FDUSD, SCR/TRY;

·SCR Recharge Channel is now open;

·SCR Withdrawal is expected to open on October 23, 2024, at 16:00 (UTC+8);

·Transfer function will be restored before 18:00 on October 21, 2024 (UTC+8).

For the airdrop participants, the waiting time for the rewards lasts up to 2 years, but the total airdrop distributed is only 7% of the total amount, while Binance's mining distributes as much as 5.5% of the total tokens in just 2 days. It must be said that Binance's strength is still impressive. According to the average annualized return of 103% over the past 20 Launchpool periods, and SCR is also the first token to be traded in pre-market on Binance, the expected rewards will be quite good. Next, I will analyze this from the heated discussion to skepticism, as well as the effects of this pre-market trading and the expected price performance after listing on Binance, answering 90% of everyone's questions!

The Scroll airdrop distribution has sparked controversy, mainly due to the high quota of Binance's Launchpool, leading to discussions on fairness within the community. This controversy has had some impact on the SCR price, as follows:

SCR Price Trend

Current Price: The pre-market trading price of SCR is 1.186 dollars.

Price Fluctuation: SCR experienced significant ups and downs after opening, currently consolidating around 1.1 dollars.

Impact of Binance Launchpool Quota on SCR Price

Market Reaction to High Quotas: Within the community, there are doubts about the high quota of Binance Launchpool, believing that it may negatively impact the long-term development and price of SCR.

Market Positioning of SCR: Due to SCR's characteristics of 'high FDV (fully diluted market value) and low circulation', some market participants classify it as an 'institutional coin', predicting that it may face continued institutional selling pressure in the future.

Scroll Team's Response to Controversy

View of Scroll Core Contributors: Scroll core contributor Sandy stated that Binance is the best channel for global distribution and contributes to Scroll's development.

Rebuttal from Scroll Co-founder: Scroll co-founder Zhang Ye refuted the viewpoint of 'compromising with centralized exchanges (CEX)', emphasizing that this is a strategic decision aimed at promoting growth and gaining broader support.

Scroll Token Economics Quick Guide

The total supply of SCR is 1 billion tokens, with an initial circulation of 190 million tokens (19.00% of the total). In the Scroll token distribution, airdrop accounts for 15%, ecosystem and growth account for 35%, and the Scroll DAO treasury accounts for 10%. Among these, 2% will be in circulation at TGE, while the remaining 8% will be unlocked evenly over four years after TGE. Binance's Launchpool accounts for 5.5%, of the remaining 19.5%, 2.5% will circulate at TGE, and the remaining 17% will be unlocked evenly over four years after TGE. The Scroll Foundation accounts for 10%, of which 2% will circulate at TGE, and the remaining 8% will be unlocked evenly over four years after TGE. Core contributors account for 23%, starting to unlock one year after TGE, and will be fully unlocked over four years. Investors account for 17%, starting to unlock one year after TGE, and will be fully unlocked over four years.

The initial circulation consists of 7% from the first airdrop, 2% from Scroll DAO, 5.5% from Binance mining, 2.5% from the ecosystem, and 2% from the Scroll Foundation. The specific token distribution ratio is shown in the figure.

In terms of mining distribution, the daily mining quota for BNB is 23.375 million tokens, accounting for 85%. The daily mining quota for FDUSD is 4.125 million tokens, accounting for 15%. The farming period is from 2024-10-09 00:00 (UTC) to 2024-10-10 23:59 (UTC), with pre-market trading starting from 2024-10-11 10:00 (UTC).

Market Value Prediction

For the market value estimation of SCR, it can be referenced from three angles: comparable projects, pre-market trading, and KOL valuations. As another Ethereum L2, Scroll has many similarities with Taiko, and Taiko's valuation can be used as a reference for Scroll's valuation. In the two rounds already announced, Scroll has raised a total of 80 million dollars. In the latest round of financing, Scroll's valuation is 1.8 billion dollars. Although Taiko's total financing amount before TGE was only 37 million dollars, its current FDV is about 1.7 billion dollars, which is close to the valuation of Scroll's latest round of financing, and can serve as a reference for Scroll's market value after listing.

At the same time, according to the pre-market trading market of Bitget and AEVO, the current pre-market price of SCR is around 1.6 dollars, with an FDV valuation of 1.6 billion dollars.

Last month, Scroll's market value grew by 70 million, and before the airdrop snapshot on October 19, the market value may grow to 1.5 billion dollars. Compared to the FDV of Zksync, Starknet, Arbitrum, and Optimism. Based on the recent listing situation of Starknet and zkSync, Scroll's valuation is unlikely to approach that of ARB and OP, but it is worth noting that Scroll's TVL is 740 million, Arbitrum is 2.4 billion, Optimism is 650 million, Starknet is 240 million, and zkSync is 860 million.

According to predictions, under neutral conditions, the SCR FDV is 1.5 billion dollars, under pessimistic conditions it is 500 million dollars, and under optimistic conditions it is 2 billion dollars.