Poll Shows Trump Leading Harris Among Arab Americans, as Democrats Face Challenges Amid Gaza Conflict
A new poll reveals that Donald Trump holds a narrow lead over Kamala Harris among Arab Americans, signaling potential trouble for the Democrats as the U.S. presidential race heads into its final phase. This latest data highlights how the ongoing Gaza war may be eroding support for Democrats among this key demographic in crucial swing states.
The Arab News/YouGov poll, released on Monday, shows Trump leading Harris by a slim margin of 45% to 43% among Arab-American voters, with only two weeks left until Election Day. The poll also suggests that Trump is perceived as the more capable candidate in resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict, with 39% of respondents favoring him over Harris, who garnered 33% on the issue.
Interestingly, the poll reflects an even split on who would be better for the broader Middle East, with both candidates tied at 38%. Among the top concerns for Arab-American voters, 29% cited the Israel-Palestine conflict, followed by 21% who prioritized the economy and cost of living, and 13% concerned about racism and discrimination.
Despite his lead, Trump is viewed as being more aligned with Israelâs current government than Harris, by a margin of six points. The poll, which surveyed 500 Arab Americans and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.93%, comes as another signal to Democrats that President Bidenâs support for Israelâs actions in Gaza could jeopardize Harrisâs electoral prospects in the upcoming election.
Earlier in October, a poll conducted by the Arab American Institute showed Trump and Harris virtually tied, with 42% supporting Trump and 41% backing Harris. Notably, Harris's current level of support among Arab Americans is 18 points lower than where President Biden stood with the same demographic in the 2020 election.
Arab-American voters, especially concentrated in the battleground state of Michigan, could play a decisive role in the outcome of this election. Michigan, home to the largest Arab-American community in North America, was won by Biden in 2020 by approximately 150,000 votes, while Trump carried it by a mere 11,000 votes in 2016. Dearborn, Michigan, holds the distinction of being the first U.S. city with an Arab-majority population.
Further complicating Harris's path to victory, Michiganâs Hamtramck mayorâleading the first U.S. city governed entirely by Muslimsâendorsed Trump in September, calling him a âman of principlesâ and âthe right choiceâ for the country.
In a targeted appeal to Arab and Muslim voters on Monday, Trump criticized Harris for her campaign partnership with Republican former Congresswoman Liz Cheney. He warned that if Harris were to win, the Middle East could face decades of instability, potentially leading to global conflicts. âIf Kamala gets four more years, the Middle East will be in flames for the next four decades, and your children might be sent to fight in wars, possibly even a Third World War,â Trump declared on Truth Social. He concluded with a direct plea, urging, âFor the sake of our country and your children, vote Trump for peace!â
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