Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Author | Nan Zhi (@Assassin_Malvo)
Recently, the meme trading platform Moonshot has gained fame, being praised by multiple posts on platform X as a 'small Binance on-chain', claiming it solves the 'last mile' problem for meme tokens and has a strong listing effect. (Note: The author reviewed 9 articles introducing Moonshot and found that 6 included recommended links, indicating a noticeable promotional bias.)
So does Moonshot indeed have a significant listing effect? If so, is it effective in the short term or does it last long? Odaily will conduct a data review in this article.
Basic situation description
Statistical objects: This article statistics 13 tokens that were listed on Moonshot in the past ten days, excluding other tokens that cross-chain to Moonshot, such as NPC, STONKS, etc.
Statistical time: Based on the listing time provided by the account 'Moonshot Listings', statistics are taken for token prices after 5 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, 24 hours, and current (October 22, Beijing time 11:00).
Special situation: Due to the inability to obtain the exact second the listing announcement was made, the starting price is taken as the opening price of the one-minute K-line, while other prices, such as those after five minutes, are taken as the closing price of the one-minute K-line.
Review of listing effect
The price statistics for each time period are shown below:
It can be clearly seen that there is a significant 'listing effect' in the first five minutes after the listing announcement, with an average increase of 14.7% in the first five minutes after the announcement, and the longer the time extends, the more pronounced the differentiation becomes.
Additionally, if GOAT is not counted, the average increase from 5min to 24H is actually continuously increasing, but the cumulative increase since the listing has dramatically dropped.
Short-term listing effect is significant
The five-minute increase of each token listed on Moonshot is shown below, arranged from left to right in the order of listing. It can be seen that after the announcement, all except XD have positive increases.
After reviewing the K-line, the author found the possibility of an 'announcement bot' automatically buying based on Moonshot announcements, especially for several low-market-value tokens, where the one-minute increase is significantly more pronounced than the five-minute increase.
The one-hour increase chart is shown below. It can be seen that most tokens maintain positive increases for one hour after the announcement, but a differentiation begins to appear, with several tokens' increases starting to approach the zero axis.
No listing effect in the medium term
The chart below is the four-hour increase chart. Half of the tokens have erased their increases and continue to decline, while three tokens, Magnet, GOAT, and GNON, which were leading tokens in their respective phases, continue to rise, but this does not qualitatively determine that Moonshot is the fundamental reason for the increase.
The 24-hour increase chart is shown below, where slop and Shoggoth are included due to less than four hours of listing. It can be seen that the differentiation of token increases is becoming more apparent, and it can basically be concluded that whether or not Moonshot listings occur has no direct relationship with the medium-term increase of the tokens.
In the long run, it will eventually go to zero.
The chart below shows the cumulative increase of each token from the listing announcement to now. GOAT is not depicted in this chart due to its excessive increase. It can be seen that most tokens are trending towards zero, primarily because the tokens listed on Moonshot are all meme tokens, which find it difficult to attract long-term attention and establish core consensus amidst the flood of similar tokens, making zero inevitable.
In summary, Moonshot listings can often only serve as short-term reference indicators, and whether tokens can continue to rise in the short to medium term is unrelated to them.
Additionally, a review reveals that Moonshot listings only occur in the evening and early morning Beijing time, often focusing on popular tokens with a market value around ten million, so readers focusing on trading during this period should pay special attention to short-term opportunities.
