The stakes are high for crypto in the election cycle, though opinions are divided as to whether either party will embrace the industry, or how much it will effect the markets.
Former U.S. President Donald Trumpâs odds of winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election have surged, hitting a two-month high, according to leading prediction market Polymarket. As of the latest figures, Trump holds a 59.9% chance of victory, while Vice President Kamala Harris trails with 39.8%. These percentages reflect the sentiments of traders who have collectively wagered over $1.6 billion on the outcome of the November election.
Other prediction platforms, such as Kalshi and PredictIt, also show Trump leading. Kalshi, which recently gained permission to list U.S. election contracts, puts Trump at 52% compared to Harrisâ 48%, while PredictIt shows a slimmer margin, with Trump at 53% and Harris at 52%.
The surge in Trumpâs odds comes at a time when the cryptocurrency industry is keenly watching the election. Trump has promised to turn the U.S. into the âcrypto capital of the world,â and some experts believe that regardless of who wins, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin are poised for significant growth.
đžCrypto and Election Outlook
According to Dan Tapiero, founder of 10T Holdings, the price of Bitcoin is expected to hit $100,000 soon, irrespective of the election results. Speaking at the Permissionless conference in Salt Lake City, Utah, Tapiero remarked, âI donât think it really matters. Everything is going up now. The election will pass.â Tapiero believes Bitcoin is a proxy for the broader cryptocurrency market and expects other digital assets to follow Bitcoinâs upward trajectory.
Similarly, CK Zheng, Chief Investment Officer of ZX Squared Capital, also expressed optimism, saying that the upcoming election would benefit Bitcoin regardless of the winner. Zheng highlighted the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in April, which historically leads to strong fourth quarters, as a major driver of price increases. He added that neither Trump nor Harris has addressed rising U.S. debts and deficits, an issue that could play in Bitcoinâs favor post-election. âThis will be very bullish for Bitcoin, especially post the U.S. election,â Zheng noted.
đžTrumpâs Crypto Appeal vs. Harrisâ New Tech Focus
Trumpâs pro-crypto stance has captured the attention of many in the industry. He has vowed to fire SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who has led aggressive enforcement actions against cryptocurrency companies. Genslerâs policies have been seen as stifling innovation, and Trumpâs promise to remove him has been met with applause by many crypto enthusiasts.
However, Kamala Harris is not entirely silent on the issue. In recent weeks, she has included blockchain technology as one of several emerging technologies where she believes the U.S. should remain dominant. This shift has been seen as a response to the growing importance of crypto and digital assets in global markets.
Interestingly, SEC enforcement head Gurbir Grewal stepped down in early October, potentially signaling a pivot in the current administrationâs approach to crypto regulation.
đžMixed Reactions from Crypto Supporters
Despite Trumpâs vocal support for cryptocurrencies, some in the crypto community remain divided. His controversial launch of a Trump-affiliated crypto project in September led some industry supporters to criticize him, stating that he had âlost their votes.â
Nonetheless, crypto markets remain optimistic about the future. Financial experts, including Alex Kruger, founder of Asgard, believe that broader economic forces, such as rate cuts and increased liquidity, will drive asset prices higher, with Bitcoin standing to benefit the most. Kruger predicts that once uncertainty around the election clears, money will flow into riskier assets like crypto. âLiquidity is going to be flowing into the market,â Kruger said, adding that Bitcoin and other assets could see significant gains as investors shift from short-term investments to longer-term options.
Cryptoâs Political Gamble
Meanwhile, a recent Time article took a cautiously skeptical view of cryptoâs political strategies in 2024. While the industry has poured massive amounts of money into campaigns and rallied grassroots supporters, it faces significant challenges in public perception and regulatory hurdles. The aggressive spending and polarized tactics could either lead to a breakthrough for crypto-friendly legislation or cause a political backlash that delays meaningful progress for years.
Cryptocurrency players are pouring significant amounts of money into political campaigns in an effort to influence U.S. elections. This includes donations to various candidates and PACs (Political Action Committees), particularly through Coinbaseâs super PAC, *Fairshake*, which has raised over $200 million. Cryptocurrency donations now make up nearly half of all corporate political contributions in 2024, a huge amount relative to the industryâs public standing.
Despite this financial clout, the article notes that the crypto industry faces challenges in gaining mainstream public approval. Polls from Pew and Gallup donât even list cryptocurrency as a top issue, and a Federal Reserve survey indicates that only 7% of Americans owned or used crypto in 2023. Furthermore, a large portion of Americans still harbor negative opinions about crypto, with 69% of voters in swing states holding unfavorable views. The industry is battling the fallout from major scandals, such as the collapse of FTX and the criminal charges against its founder, Sam Bankman-Fried.
The FTX collapse and Bankman-Friedâs criminal activities had profound reputational consequences for the entire crypto industry. The article highlights that while some industry insiders thought the scandal might serve as a catalyst for clear federal regulations, the opposite has happened. The SEC, under Gary Gensler, has increased its enforcement actions, suing crypto companies and trying to block initiatives like Bitcoin ETFs. This regulatory pressure has united crypto supporters in their opposition to Genslerâs approach.
The article discusses the crypto industryâs top legislative goal, the *FIT21* bill, which would shift oversight of most digital assets from the SEC to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The bill passed in the House but has yet to be voted on in the Senate. The article expresses skepticism about its passage, citing political infighting and reports suggesting that the crypto industryâs aggressive lobbying tactics could backfire. A researcher from TD Cowen wrote that cryptoâs attempts to sway Senate races could anger key legislators and delay any real progress until 2026.
