Q1-2: No go
Q3: Still waiting
In Q4, will altcoins wake up?
Here's what the data says
● Total Market Cap
The overall market capitalization shrunk by 8.6% Q3, largely driven by weak macro conditions.
➜ It feels like the broader uncertainty is keeping both institutions and retail investors on the sidelines.
● Volume
Spot trading volume across major exchanges hit new lows. We’re looking at a drop of 36.8% compared to Q2.
➜ It feels like everyone’s holding their breath waiting for the next big move.
Derivatives are where the action is right now. As spot volumes dried up, derivatives took over, now making up 80.3% of total trading volume.
➜ That tells me traders are hedging more, not just betting on price direction.
● $BTC Dominance
Bitcoin’s dominance is creeping back up again, now at 58.15%. I’ve been saying for a while that in uncertain times, people tend to go back to what they trust.
➜ And right now, that’s BTC — still the king, after all this time
But what’s really wild is that BTC's dominance is climbing despite declining volumes across the board.
➜ It’s like people are moving back to Bitcoin not because of hype, but out of a need for something solid.
● $ETH Performance
ETH, on the other hand, saw less growth in market share compared to BTC.
➜ Interesting dynamic there — Ethereum is still driving innovation, but the speculative money is leaning more towards Bitcoin for safety right now
I’m not surprised by ETH's slower growth in market share, honestly.
With all the Layer 2 solutions and alt-L1 competition, ETH has a tougher path ahead in terms of grabbing attention
● Prediction markets
Here's something interesting: prediction markets saw a boost in activity this quarter. Could be the rising uncertainty around global events, but more people are betting on outcomes.
Makes sense, right? People are looking for edges anywhere they can find them.
● Total Value Locked
Lastly, DeFi continues to struggle, especially with liquidity. TVL dropped by 15.5%.
Even the DeFi powerhouses are taking a hit as people chase yield elsewhere or just stay sidelined.
This DeFi drop isn’t all bad though — it’s part of a market cycle. The space is maturing, and with maturation comes recalibration.
We're seeing less hype, more long-term building. I expect DeFi will bounce back when the market finds its footing.
If I had to sum it up, Q3 was a reset.
Spot trading down, derivatives up, Bitcoin's dominance reaffirmed.
Market’s maturing, but it’s cautious—everyone’s waiting for the next catalyst. We’re in a bit of a holding pattern, but that just means opportunity when the tide turns.
When we look at the chart for $BTC and $ETH, it's clear that Bitcoin has demonstrated strength throughout this cycle, while $ETH and other altcoins remain lackluster.
What could this imply?
I think weak hands are being systematically shaken out of altcoins so big players can acquire as many coins as possible at the lowest prices.
Don’t believe altcoins are being abandoned; I’m sure they are being accumulated by major players.
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