#ChartoftheDay According to The Block, the betting volume for who will win the 2024 United States presidential race crossed $2 billion on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket. As of Oct. 17, Republican candidate Trump maintains nearly $608 million in betting volume with a 62.3% chance of winning. Democratic candidate Harris has $405 million with winning odds of 37.5%.
As the November 5 election nears, Polymarket’s prediction market has grown substantially in October, with a 113.7% increase in volume compared to September’s $533.5 million. The platform’s volume for October reached $1.14 billion by mid-month.
This demonstrated the increased interest in prediction markets. On Thursday, Polymarket even rose to the #1 spot on Apple’s U.S. App Store’s list of free magazines and news apps.
However, if the prediction proves inaccurate, the platform could risk losing all the progress it has made toward being regarded as a truth machine rather than a place for random guessing.
Also, many are suspicious of the motivation of one of the largest holders of the pro-Trump side on Polymarket’s election contract. People within the political forecasting community wonder if dark money is trying to manipulate the markets.
