Want to make quick money in the crypto market? New coins are often the most hyped wealth codes, but don’t be too happy too soon. What falls from the sky may not be pie in the sky, but may be a trap. Especially at the moment, the performance of new coins launched on the five major exchanges is enough to calm down every investor who is eager to get rich.
We carefully analyzed the performance of new coins on the five major exchanges, Binance, OKX, Upbit, Bybit, and Coinbase, from September 19 to October 18 at 4 p.m., and concluded that most people who play with new coins are paying for the early investors to flee. Don't think that it's safe to list on an exchange. Behind the data, some projects have scary valuations and shocking selling pressure, while others are playing with the market sentiment. Whether it's good luck or being ripped off depends on your choice.
This article will take you to an in-depth interpretation of the real performance of these new currency projects, compare the steady growth of Bitcoin and Ethereum, and reveal the hidden traps and opportunities behind the exhaustion of altcoin liquidity. To gain a foothold in this turbulent market, you need not only luck, but also wisdom.
New coin market: high risk and high volatility, who is holding on?
First, let’s look at the performance of new coins launched in the past month on various exchanges. In short, the new coin market shows high volatility and mixed returns. Although some platforms such as Upbit and Coinbase are slightly stable, the performance of most new coins is not satisfactory, and even the industry giant Binance is struggling.
Bybit: 20 new coins were launched, with an average return of -0.09, a median of -0.156, and a variance of 0.165. The volatility is high, indicating that market sentiment is extremely unstable. Bybit's new coins have an overall negative performance, but there are still short-term opportunities in the volatility. The market seems to have given Bybit's projects some room for speculation, but this high volatility is often accompanied by high risks.
Coinbase: 11 new coins were launched, with an average return of 0.0049, a median of -0.0077, and a variance of 0.124. Although the performance was satisfactory, the return was close to zero, which reflects that investors are more conservative in their confidence in the projects launched on the Coinbase platform. Although Coinbase has high regulatory compliance, the market does not seem to have high expectations for its short-term profit potential.
OKX: 9 new coins were launched, with an average return of -0.094, a median of -0.174, and a variance of 0.296. OKX's performance is similar to Bybit, with high volatility and investor sentiment driven more by market speculation. Although short-term opportunities are frequent, the overall downward pressure is huge.
Upbit: 4 new coins were launched, with an average return of 0.118, a median of -0.039, and a variance of 0.155. Upbit's performance is relatively stable. Although the sample size is small, its tokens perform well and are worthy of investors' attention. Compared with other platforms, Upbit's tokens have volatility, but the retracement is smaller.
Binance: 10 new coins were launched, with an average return of -0.229, a median of -0.224, and a variance of 0.033. This result is shocking. Almost all of Binance’s new coins were wiped out, and the performance continued to be sluggish. The market lacked enthusiasm, and even volatility was low, reflecting investors’ lack of confidence in Binance projects.
From the data, we can see that the choice of exchange has a crucial impact on investors' returns.
Taking Bybit and OKX as examples, although these two platforms have launched a large number of tokens, their average returns are negative and the market risks are obvious.
As a retail investor, if you invest the same amount of money in each currency, your investment in Bybit and OKX will result in a loss of nearly 10%.
In contrast, Coinbase and Upbit performed more steadily.
Coinbase’s gains, while less than 1%, were relatively stable.
Upbit's profit is as high as 20%, which may be related to its stricter project screening standards.
But the most surprising thing is that if you bought these new coins on Binance, the average loss was as high as 22.9%.
Altcoin Market: Liquidity Dilemma
If mainstream coins are the mainstay of the crypto world, altcoins have always played the role of "adventure paradise". However, the liquidity dilemma of the altcoin market has recently triggered a lot of discussion. From the data, it can be seen that the market share of Bitcoin has hit a new high recently, Bitcoin has been rising, while the liquidity of altcoins is still exhausted. The performance of most new coins after listing seems weak, and although the volatility is large, the trading volume and depth are insufficient. Behind this, it reflects the flight of funds in the market.
High leverage and high volatility seem to be the "selling points" of altcoins, but the problem is that there are fewer and fewer incremental funds willing to enter the market. Insufficient liquidity has led to a widening of the bid-ask spread in the token market, and some projects are unlikely to form sufficient market depth and price stability in the short term. Especially in the new coin market, although there are short-term trading opportunities, the support of most tokens on exchanges is insufficient, and their performance is more like a "flash in the pan".
Comparing the top five currencies in terms of returns, we can find that the valuations of these projects are generally low, with FDV (fully diluted market value) generally below 200 million US dollars. MEME coins are the main tokens among these tokens, reflecting the high risk preference of investors in the current market. More funds have flowed into high-risk, short-term speculative projects. Investors obviously see the high returns that these small-cap projects may bring when market sentiment is high, especially in short-term speculation, when low-valuation projects are more likely to attract rapid capital increases. Such projects are easy to achieve rapid growth in the short term because of their small market value and high price elasticity.
On the contrary, compared with the lowest-ranked currencies in terms of revenue, the project valuations are generally higher, and the FDV is usually above 2 billion US dollars when listed. However, the circulation ratio of these projects is extremely low, resulting in poor liquidity in the market, and the tokens are facing huge selling pressure in the secondary market. Since most tokens are in a locked state or have very little circulation, the buying in the secondary market cannot absorb the selling pressure of early investors. This directly leads to a serious price drop of these tokens after listing, and investors often become victims of the secondary market.
In addition, we have noticed that some projects adopt the "contract first, then spot" approach when listing. This operating mode makes people have to question whether it is to provide early investors with a more convenient profit channel. Through this strategy, early currency holders can first use leverage to make profits in the contract market, and then quickly cash out after the spot market goes online, further increasing the selling pressure in the secondary market. This unhealthy market behavior has exacerbated the decline in token prices, especially when the circulation ratio is already extremely low, and the risks borne by ordinary investors have significantly increased.
Behind this phenomenon is actually a complex game between market mechanisms and investor psychology. Low-valuation projects have attracted a large number of short-term speculators who are more willing to take high risks to gain short-term profits. High-valuation projects have become a "banker game". Early investors have raised money through high valuations, leaving the secondary market with tokens full of bubbles and endless selling pressure.
The role of project valuation and circulation mechanism in the market cannot be ignored. Low circulation ratio gives early investors an absolute advantage, and they can almost completely control price trends in the absence of sufficient liquidity support. When choosing a project, investors should not only pay attention to the potential and development direction of the project, but also carefully examine its FDV and circulation supply ratio to avoid falling into the dilemma of insufficient liquidity.
Mainstream Coins vs. Altcoins: Why Are Bitcoin and Ethereum So Stable?
Let's compare the performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum. In the past month, Bitcoin has risen by 15% from its lowest point to its highest point. If you choose to buy Bitcoin at any time point in the past month, it will also rise by nearly 8% on average, which is in stark contrast to the dismal performance of most new coins. The reason is that market funds seem to be more inclined to move closer to mature mainstream currencies, especially in a market environment with increasing risks, investors are more willing to choose safe-haven assets such as Bitcoin.
As market sentiment becomes more conservative, the stability of Bitcoin and Ethereum becomes their biggest advantage. Unlike altcoins, the liquidity and market depth of mainstream currencies are more secure, which is why when the overall market is sluggish, funds still flow into Bitcoin and Ethereum rather than new coins.
The recent breakthrough of Bitcoin above $68,000 is driven by multiple factors, especially the strong growth of spot demand and the continuous inflow of ETF funds. Bitcoin ETFs have achieved net inflows for four consecutive days, reflecting the high recognition of cryptocurrencies by institutional investors and showing that funds are flowing into the market on a large scale.
According to Coinglass data, the total open interest of Bitcoin contracts has reached a record high of $39.785 billion, indicating that the market's bullish sentiment on Bitcoin is very strong. The momentum of these capital inflows also indicates that Bitcoin may hit its all-time high of $73,790 again.
In addition, the upcoming US election may become the next important catalyst for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's continued rise is not only due to its large market value and mature market, but also because of its "digital gold" status, it has become the preferred configuration of institutional investors. Ethereum continues to consolidate its position in the market with its innovative ecosystems such as DeFi and Layer 2.
Summarize
I have to say that I must be very sad at this moment, because most retail investors hold the altcoins that are hyped by various institutions. On the one hand, institutions are fueling the trend, and on the other hand, the market is ruthlessly correcting. Altcoins have become the place where many retail investors' dreams are shattered.
From the data analysis, the performance of new coins on the five major exchanges is generally lower than expected, and the market's investment sentiment for altcoins has obviously cooled down. In sharp contrast, mainstream assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum still show strong risk resistance and are as stable as a rock in the market turmoil.
In the long run, the healthy development of the market is inseparable from a transparent and fair issuance mechanism. Investors should not only pay attention to the fundamentals of the project, but also have a deep understanding of the project's token economics in order to gain a firm foothold in this uncertain crypto market. Avoid those opaque token distribution mechanisms and be wary of projects with low circulation rates. These are the basic rules for investors to survive in this complex market.
This market will never show mercy to those speculators who blindly chase trends. Only by careful consideration and prudent choice can one truly be at ease in this ups and downs of the crypto world.
