Insiders and outsiders in the world of bitcoin (BTC) are watching every step the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) takes regarding the approval (or rejection) of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on the coin. digital.

One of those staring at the SEC is cryptocurrency lawyer John Deaton, who lays out two possible scenarios for the future of bitcoin ETFs.

In the first scenario, Deaton assumes that the regulatory agency has “capitulated” to the presence of financial instruments and its approval will be imminent. In this scenario, “the approval [of the ETFs], before the end of this year or before the end of the 1st quarter of 2024, is a certainty,” he points out.

Like Deaton, most analysts see it very likely that these financial products will eventually be approved. Bloomberg Intelligence specialists Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart believe there is a 90% chance that the ETF will eventually be approved. They estimate that the event will take place at the beginning of January 2024

The second scenario raised by the lawyer is the most negative. Deaton believes that the SEC may also be “gathering more information during these discussions to find a different reason to deny bitcoin spot ETFs.” This would be, in his opinion, the largest “deception/scam” maneuver in the history of the SEC and he does not rule out that it could be carried out.